South African economic growth probably eased to the slowest pace in more than four years last quarter after an electricity shortage forced mines and factories to shut and higher interest rates crimped spending.
Gross domestic product rose an annualized 2.5 percent in the three months through March, down from 5.3 percent in the fourth quarter, according to the median estimate of 15 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Statistics South Africa will publish the data at 11:30 a.m. in Pretoria tomorrow.
Eskom Holdings Ltd., the state-owned power utility, ran short of electricity supply in January, forcing Anglo Platinum Holdings Ltd., the world's largest producer of the metal, and other miners to close their South African mines for five days. That compounded a slowdown in economic growth already underway as four interest rate increases last year cut spending on cars and furniture.
“The electricity debacle had a big impact,'' said Elize Kruger, an economist at Thebe Financial Services Ltd. in Johannesburg. “The number is going to look very bad because for the past few years we've gotten used to growth rates of 4 percent or higher. Growth is going to trend lower, given that we are probably going to have more interest rate hikes.''
Africa's biggest economy has expanded by more than 4 percent every quarter in the past three years and will probably grow 3.3 percent this year, down from 5.1 percent in 2007, Kruger said.
Higher interest rates, the electricity shortage and a possible recession in the U.S. are undermining government goals to boost growth to 6 percent by 2010 and cut the unemployment rate to 14 percent by 2014, from 23 percent currently.
`Battered'
“Industries were left battered by the energy crisis,'' Danelee van Dyk, an economist at Standard Bank Group Ltd., Africa's biggest lender, said in a note to clients. “It will largely be up to the broader services industry to uplift what may potentially be the weakest quarterly growth rate since 2003.''
Mining probably fell an annualized 25 percent in the first quarter from the previous three months, Kruger said, after dropping 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter. Manufacturing, the second-largest industry in the economy, shrank 1 percent, Kruger estimated, compared to an 8.2 percent expansion in the fourth quarter payday advance cheap payday loans.
Manufacturers, such as ArcelorMittal South Africa Ltd., Africa's largest steelmaker, were asked to reduce power consumption last quarter, crimping output, while Eskom's scheduled power outages to cities shut restaurants and shops.
Industry Breakdown
“It's a sudden, abrupt slowdown in the economy, and the electricity crisis was the shock,'' Kruger said. “The slowdown would've been less severe without the electricity impact.''
Eskom, which supplies 95 percent of the country's power, lacks generating capacity after the government delayed its plan to expand. The power shortage will probably last for seven years, according to the utility, while it spends 343 billion rand ($$44.8 billion) to build new power plants.
The Reserve Bank increased its benchmark interest rate by 2 percentage points to 11 percent in the second half of last year as inflation stayed above the 3 percent to 6 percent target range. The rate was raised by a half point in April, while central bank Governor Tito Mboweni has indicated that further rate increases are on the cards.
Retail sales fell an annual 1.7 percent in March, the first drop in three months, after expanding 2.9 percent in February, the statistics office said on May 14. Vehicle sales dropped 2.8 percent in April, an industry body said on May 6, while house- price inflation slowed to an annual 6.8 percent in April, the lowest in 8 1/2 years, according to Absa Group Ltd., the country's biggest mortgage lender.
“We are going to see more interest rate hikes this year,'' said Russell Lamberti, an economist at Econometrix Treasury Management in Johannesburg. “The outlook isn't good.''
Construction, which expanded an annualized 14 percent in the fourth quarter, probably helped to offset a drop in output in other industries in the fourth quarter, Lamberti said. Government spending of 568 billion rand over the next three years on power plants, railways and stadiums in preparation of the 2010 FIFA World Cup, has benefited construction.
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