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Who would President Barack Obama or President John McCain choose as the next U.S. Treasury secretary?

With the election still more than four months away, Republican candidate McCain and Obama, his Democratic opponent, are focused on picking vice presidential running mates.

But that has not stopped Wall Street from mulling over possibilities for the top job at Treasury.

“You would have to think that Phil Gramm is on the list for McCain,” said Greg Valliere, chief strategist at Stanford Washington Research Group. Gramm, a vice chairman for UBS Investment Bank and a former Texas senator, is a senior McCain campaign official.

Also high on McCain’s list would be former Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina, Valliere said.

For Obama, some in the financial community are intrigued by the possibility of New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner, a former official in Bill Clinton’s administration.

“He’s very popular on Wall Street payday loans online payday loan. He understands the complexities of the markets and the credit crunch. He’s got just a tremendous Rolodex,” Valliere said.

Both Valliere and Marc Chandler, a currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, said another potential candidate for Treasury secretary in an Obama administration would be Laura Tyson, a former top economic adviser to President Bill Clinton who is now teaching at the University of California, Berkeley. She has recently begun advising Obama. 

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Stocks will start the second half of 2008 staring into the jaws of a bear market.

At Friday’s closing bell, it looked like there was little relief in sight from runaway oil prices and the lack of reassurances from bank about their already gloomy outlooks.

Investors will face a blitz of economic data in the holiday-shortened week, with the marquee number coming in Thursday’s payrolls report for June.

Recession fears are rising with crude oil’s dizzying spiral to a succession of record highs and the relentless stream of forecasts for more bank write-downs. When the second quarter ends on Monday, the U.S. market may finish June with its worst monthly percentage decline since September 2002.

“The combination of a banking system that is on its knees and high commodity prices is just making investors nervous,” said Ray Rund, managing director and head of research at Shaker Investments in Cleveland, Ohio cash advance fast cash payday loan. “Even though we are not technically in a recession, it certainly feels that way.”

U.S. oil futures shot up to a record high just a penny shy of $143 a barrel on Friday — wrapping up a week when the president of OPEC predicted that oil prices could rise as high as $170 in the coming months. Gold hit a one-month high.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI finished the week down 4.2 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX slid 3 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC dropped 3.8 percent. It was the worst week for the Dow and the Nasdaq since February 10.

SHRINKING PAYROLLS, SLOWER FACTORIES 

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Federal Reserve officials are reviewing regulations that limit investment firms' stakes in banks, aiming to channel more capital into the U.S. banking system.

“We are looking at ways we can make those things more workable and gain from the experience we have had over the past few years,'' said Fed spokesman David Skidmore, citing a statement by the central bank's general counsel, Scott Alvarez.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson have urged lenders to raise capital to compensate for almost $400 billion in writedowns and credit losses from the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market. Concern about rising loan losses has sent the Standard & Poor's 500 Banks Index into a 21 percent dive this month, putting it on course for its worst monthly return in almost a decade.

“The biggest ingredient that is missing in the banking system is capital,'' said David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors Inc., a Vineland, New Jersey firm that manages $1 billion. “The more they liberalize, the more they attract'' capital, he said.

Currently, Fed guidelines limit funds to a 9.9 percent voting stake in banks, and funds or individuals have to commit to the Fed that they will remain passive investors if they go above that level, up to a cap of 24.9 percent. If they don't make that commitment, they then would have to form a bank holding company.

Seeking Clarity

More than 100 mortgage companies have been forced to close, halt operations or sell themselves since the beginning of last year. Among larger firms, Citigroup Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. had their second-quarter earnings estimates cut by analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. yesterday, spurring declines in their shares.

Fed officials are reviewing the history of their legal interpretations and responses to investors to see if they can summarize their views into a clear set of guidelines. Regional lenders would benefit most from any change, said Kotok.

The central bank “is taking a look at these rules with an eye toward whether there are any provisions that can be modernized,'' said Mark Tenhundfeld, senior vice president of regulatory policy at the American Bankers Association in Washington. “We would certainly favor the Fed looking at its control regulations to see if there are any barriers to investment.''

Carlyle Meeting

Fed officials have met with Washington-based buyout fund Carlyle Group, said Ellen Gonda, a spokeswoman for the firm easy quick payday loans payday loans. “There is an ongoing dialogue,'' she said. “It's not unusual for regulators to seek private-sector input on policy.''

Central bankers have also spoken with J.C. Flowers & Co., Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and Warburg Pincus, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter. KKR spokeswoman Ruth Pachman declined to comment.

Lifting the legal cap on non-banks' purchases of bank shares “would be a very major step,'' Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said in answer to questions at a June 5 Senate Banking Committee hearing. “It would be a huge change from where we are today and I'm not sure it's necessary in order to get capital.''

Defaults and delinquencies on mortgage loans and related credit products have hit the financial system with $400 billion of losses and writedowns since the start of last year and resulted in tighter credit conditions for consumers. Financial institutions have raised more than $321 billion of capital over the same period, including through sales of stock and stakes to sovereign wealth funds.

`Important Role'

“In the last few recapitalizations where balance sheets have been strengthened for financial institutions, private equity has played an important role,'' Treasury Undersecretary Robert Steel said in an April interview. Changes to the current limits on bank capital purchases is “certainly something worth considering and looking at,'' he said.

Fifth Third Bancorp, Ohio's second-biggest bank, said June 18 most of its quarterly profit will evaporate after already posting nine consecutive declines.

Cleveland-based KeyCorp doubled its forecast last month for charges on debts unlikely to be repaid to as much as 1.3 percent. The bank, whose profit fell 38 percent in the first quarter, cited its effort to reduce vulnerability to homebuilders and “elevated'' net charge-offs for education and home loans.

“At the very least the rules need to be simplified and probably can be liberalized,'' said Bill Isaac, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. between 1981 and 1985, and now head of the Secura Group LLC, a financial consulting firm in Vienna, Virginia.

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The price of gas has been on the rise — and so has the daily ridership on MARC trains.

The average daily ridership on MARC trains in the month of May reached 32,604, up 6 percent compared with May 2007, according to the Maryland Transit Administration.

May marked the fifth month since January that daily ridership averaged more than 30,000 passengers.

MARC's Penn Line, which runs between Perryville and Washington, D.C., was the most traveled line last month with an average of 20,414 daily passengers. That was a 4.3 percent increase from April.

The Camden Line, running between Baltimore and D.C., saw a 10.9 percent uptick with 4,466 average daily boardings.

The Brunswick Line, which travels from West Virginia through Frederick and Montgomery counties to D.C, carried 7,724 daily passengers, an 8.2 percent increase creditscore 500 fast cash.

The MARC train operates a 203-mile, 42-station network between D.C. and parts of Maryland and West Virginia.

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St. George Trucking & Warehousing of Texas Inc. is set to become the first tenant at Bayport North Industrial Park, Phase II, after signing a long-term lease with landlord Vantage Cos. LLC.

St. George, a Houston-based third-party warehousing and trucking provider, will lease 129,000 square feet of office and warehouse space in the 800,000-square-foot, two-building project.

The recently completed property is located in Pasadena.

St. George is seeking to expanding to a larger facility that is closer to the Port of Houston. The company’s previous location was on the east side of Loop 610, said Walter Menuet, Vantage vice president of marketing free credit report and score cashadvance.

Menuet brokered the deal for Dallas-based Vantage, while St. George hired David Kim of New York-based commercial real estate firm Studley Inc.

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The Swiss government scaled back its economic forecast for next year as the slowing global economy hits exports and inflation erodes spending.

The economy will grow at a rate of 1.3 percent in 2009, the Bern, Switzerland-based State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said today in a statement. That's less than a March forecast of 1.5 percent growth. The government left unchanged the 1.9 percent forecast for expansion this year. Growth was 3.1 percent last year.

Swiss expansion is set to ease further as slowing growth in the U.S. and Europe cuts into sales abroad and financial market turmoil sparked by the U.S. housing crisis hurts earnings at banks including UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group. At the same time, record prices for raw materials such as oil and steel are squeezing companies' profit margins and fueling the fastest inflation in 15 years.

“The slowing of exports which can already be seen may continue in the face of weaker growth abroad and the stronger Swiss franc,'' the release said. “The export of financial market services will show a particularly marked weakening, after showing high growth in recent years.''

The KOF economic research institute in Zurich today cut its growth forecast for this year to 2 percent from 2.1 percent and to 1.8 percent for 2009 from a previously estimated 2 percent.

Slower Growth

While the franc's 19 percent gain against the dollar in the past year helps offset the rise in oil prices, it is also making exports less competitive. The franc has gained 2.3 percent against the euro, making Swiss goods more expensive in the country's biggest export market.

“Growth will be much slower'' in 2009, Swiss National Bank President Jean-Pierre Roth said at the central bank's monetary policy meeting June 19 cash advance easy payday loans. After reiterating the SNB's forecast that the domestic economy will grow between 1.5 percent and 2 percent this year, Roth said “the reality is that the economy is growing much weaker than the forecast may suggest.''

The SNB left its target interest rate on hold at 2.75 percent last week, saying slowing growth would damp inflation.

Inflation will probably average 2.5 percent this year before slowing to below 2 percent next year, the release said.

Switzerland's leading economic indicators fell to the lowest in more than four years in May and manufacturing growth eased for the third time in four months. Swiss economic expansion slowed to 0.3 percent in the first quarter, the weakest pace in more than three years.

Emerging Markets

Some exporters are weathering the slowdown as emerging economies boost purchases of Swiss industrial products to expand infrastructure. Zurich-based ABB Ltd., the world's largest builder of electricity networks, said first-quarter profit soared 87 percent as China and India increased investment in power stations and grids.

Still, sales abroad may decline as global growth cools and central banks shift their attention from fighting the global credit squeeze to curbing inflation. Confidence in the world's economy declined this month after central banks signaled interest rates may rise, a survey of Bloomberg users showed.

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Following is a summary of the April retail sales report from Statistics Canada. =============================================================

April March Feb. Jan. 3-mo.

2008 2008 2008 2008 YoY% Annual ============================================================= Total retail 0.6% 0.0% -0.9% 1.4% 4.2% 1.7% ex-vehicles 1.1% 0.1% -0.4% 1.0% 5.8% 2.6% ————————————————————- Automotive -0.2% 0.2% -1.5% 2.2% 4.4% 2.9% Gas stations 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 1.6% 15.5% 11.5% Furn/electronics 1.6% -0.2% -1.5% 3.6% 3.7% 4.8% Building supplies -0.6% -0.4% -0.7% 1.6% 3.5% -0.5% Food & beverage 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 2.3% 1.4% Supermarkets 0.2% 0.4% -0.1% 0.4% 2.4% 1.4% Pharmacies 0.6% 1.0% -1.2% 0.8% 5.2% 0.7% Clothing 2.8% -2.7% -0.8% 2.3% 2.9% -3.5% ============================================================= NOTE: Figures are seasonally adjusted and monthly change unless noted 24 hour payday advances free instant credit score estimator. Figures prior to Jan. are based on previous release and may be subject to revision.

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Your next box of Wheaties will feature the Boston Celtics and former Minnesota Timberwolves star Kevin Garnett.

Golden Valley-based General Mills (NYSE: GIS) will issue a special-edition commemorative package in honor of the Boston Celtics, which on Tuesday won the NBA championship for a 17th time, defeating the Los Angeles Lakers in six games. Garnett, who left the Minnesota Timberwolves after last season, had 26 points, 14 rebounds and 4 assists in the final game.

The 15.6-ounce Celtics Wheaties box will be available nationally beginning in the next three weeks first cash advance absolutely free credit report.

This package marks the fourth Wheaties box appearance for the Celtics, and Garnett's third appearance.

cwyant@bizjournals.com | (612) 288-2108

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Japan's former top currency official Hiroshi Watanabe said governments would be “foolish'' to rule out intervening to strengthen the dollar because it may help to contain inflation.

“Currency intervention is certainly a tool to fight inflation of imported goods when monetary policy can't stop it,'' Watanabe said today in an interview in Jeju, South Korea, where he is attending a meeting of Asian and European finance officials. “Governments would be foolish to omit that option.''

Finance ministers including France's Christine Lagarde and Russia's Alexei Kudrin said at a Group of Eight meeting on June 14 that a higher dollar would help tame accelerating inflation caused by record oil and raw-materials prices. A stronger dollar would reduce the incentive for investors to buy raw materials priced in the currency as a hedge against its decline.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson last week said intervention is “never off the table'' and he supports a “strong'' dollar. The U.S. currency has slumped 5.3 percent against the euro and 2.2 percent versus the yen this year faxless payday loans cash advance usa.

“If the dollar enters freefall, that wouldn't be good for anybody,'' Watanabe said. “If other nations recognize it, they will move together'' to buy the currency, he said.

The dollar traded at 1.5401 per euro as of 2:22 p.m. in Tokyo from 1.5380 late June 13. The U.S. currency was at 108.23 yen from 108.19.

Japan's Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga said G-8 finance chiefs didn't talk about joint intervention in the currency market at the June 13-14 gathering that he hosted. Nukaga yesterday declined to say whether he supports a stronger dollar.

Watanabe, currently a professor at Tokyo's Hitotsubashi University, stepped down as vice finance minister for international affairs last year. In his two-year tenure, Watanabe never stepped into the market to sell or buy currencies.

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Secretary of State Phil Wilson is resigning his post to join energy company Luminant as senior vice president of public affairs.

Wilson’s last day in office will be July 6. He will begin his new job at Dallas-based Luminant on July 7.

Gov. Rick Perry appointed Wilson secretary of state last year and he was sworn in July 1, 2007. In his role, Wilson serves as the chief elections officer for the state, as well as chief of international protocol. He maintains business and public filings and acts as the governor’s chief liaison on border and Mexico affairs.

In a statement, Wilson said: "I have been honored to serve in this role for the people of Texas and am proud of the accomplishments we achieved during our time in office; overseeing the largest primary in Texas history, being part of bringing thousands of new jobs to Texas, and investing in our states future employers and technologies."

Wilson has served as chairman of the Governor’s Competitiveness Council and on the Border Security Council. He also led the state’s efforts in economic development by serving as the governor’s designee on the Texas Enterprise Fund and Emerging Technology Fund cash advance now payday advances.

Gov. Rick Perry appointed Wilson secretary of state last year and he was sworn in July 1, 2007. In his role, Wilson serves as the chief elections officer for the state, as well as chief of international protocol. He maintains business and public filings and acts as the governor’s chief liaison on border and Mexico affairs.

In a statement, Perry called Wilson a trusted adviser and dear friend.

"He is a man of innovative thought and exceptional determination; attributes that have led him to success in both his professional and personal life," Perry said. "I thank Phil for his service, and wish him and his family much success and happiness in the future. He will be hard to replace."

At Luminant, the power generation unit of Energy Future Holdings Corp., Wilson will oversee the company’s community relations, communications, regulatory and government affairs efforts.

Web site: www.sos.state.tx.us, www.luminant.com

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