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May 6, 2009

Fed Seeks End to Wall Street Lock Over OTC Derivatives Market

Filed under: marketing — Tags: , , — Moon @ 2:41 pm

The Federal Reserve signaled for the first time that it intends to break Wall Street’s hammerlock on so-called over-the-counter derivatives and bring more regulation to the $684 trillion market.

The central bank will require more transparency after the unregulated market contributed to the demise of Bear Stearns Cos. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and forced the government to use $182.5 billion to bail out American International Group Inc. The world’s biggest financial companies reported more than $1.3 trillion in losses and writedowns since the start of 2007, in part from derivatives, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The biggest sign of the Fed’s intentions came when Theo Lubke, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York official responsible for oversight of the market, said the biggest banks shouldn’t be allowed to dominate trading of the financial contracts, which let investors hedge against losses or speculate on everything from changes in interest rates to corporate defaults.

“It is simply unacceptable in today’s environment that the design and structure of the OTC derivatives market can be controlled by a handful of large dealers,” Lubke, a senior vice president at the New York Fed, said at an International Swaps and Derivatives Association conference in Beijing on April 22.

Lubke, 42, has pushed banks to speed up confirmation of trades and use clearinghouses for credit-default swaps to reduce the risk of failed transactions. He was appointed to police OTC derivatives in 2007 by Timothy Geithner, now Treasury Secretary, when he was president of the New York Fed.

Wake-Up Call

The comments were “a wake-up type of statement,” said Bruce Weber, a professor of finance at the London Business School. Banks have resisted changes to the OTC market because they want to limit competition, he said.

The Fed regulates bank holding companies, giving it oversight for some of the largest over-the-counter derivatives dealers. Lubke’s remarks at the derivatives industry’s annual meeting were made as a representative of the New York Fed. Lubke declined to elaborate on his comments.

“There is opacity in the OTC market that doesn’t have commensurate public policy benefits,” Lubke said at the conference. “This is not something that can continue.”

Robert Pickel, chief executive officer of ISDA, which represents dealers, hedge funds and other investors in the privately negotiated derivatives industry, said all types of financial companies deserve representation in the over-the- counter market.

Lehman, AIG

“In order to ensure participants have confidence in the operation of these markets, it’s important that they have a say in market developments,” Pickel said in an e-mailed statement.

Derivatives are contracts whose values are tied to assets including stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies, or events such as changes in interest rates or the weather.

The U.S. government and the Fed have spent, lent or committed $12.8 trillion to stem the longest recession since the 1930s, which was triggered when credit markets froze in August 2007 after banks found they couldn’t determine the value of derivatives tied to subprime mortgages.

Over-the-counter derivatives, such as the $28 trillion credit-default swaps market, complicated U.S. and European efforts to unravel trades between banks. Bear Stearns was acquired by JPMorgan Chase & Co. last year, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc cash advance no faxing. collapsed in the world’s biggest bankruptcy and AIG is selling assets after losses from derivatives. All are based in New York.

‘Transparent Manner’

Credit-default swaps are contracts that pay the buyer the face value of a bond or a loan in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. They are used to hedge against risks and to speculate on a company’s ability to repay debt.

“If this market is going to see its maturation into something that works for the benefit of the financial markets and participants as a whole, the arrangements of decision-making over key design elements need to be done in a more transparent manner,” Lubke told ISDA attendees. “That includes a broader range of market participants being involved in that process.”

The New York Fed got dealers to share power with investment firms by encouraging ISDA to appoint five buy-side firms including Pacific Investment Management Co. and Elliott Management Corp. to its committee that makes binding decisions on how credit-default swap contracts are settled. Previously only banks made those decisions.

Pimco is based in Newport Beach, California. ISDA and Elliott Management are based in New York.

JPMorgan Profits

New York-based JPMorgan is the largest user of over-the- counter derivatives, with $87.4 trillion in notional value last year, more than the next two largest, Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc., combined, according to the Office for the Comptroller of the Currency. JPMorgan made $5 billion in profit from fixed-income over-the-counter trades last year, according to people familiar with the matter, who declined to be identified because the results aren’t public.

JPMorgan spokesman Brian Marchiony declined to discuss Lubke’s comments.

Capitalized by its members, a clearinghouse acts as the buyer to every seller and seller to every buyer, reducing the default risk between parties to a trade. It also allows regulators to assess market positions and prices.

The New York Fed pushed last month for the world’s largest banks to offer hedge funds and other clients access to clearinghouses that back trades in credit-default swaps.

Dudley, Geithner

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. was first to back trades with its credit-default swap clearinghouse, ahead of rivals CME Group Inc. and NYSE Euronext. ICE Trust has guaranteed $257 billion of the contracts since March.

The New York Fed is concerned that credit-default swap clearinghouses lack a common feature of their counterparts for futures, allowing customers to segregate their trading from bank accounts.

“Banks and buy-side firms still need to make considerable improvements to both risk management and the design of the OTC derivatives markets,” New York Fed President William Dudley said April 1 in a statement.

Geithner said in March that the U.S. would for the first time regulate the market, and that clearinghouses for standardized products such as interest-rate swaps were needed to improve transparency.

The trading data will be made public so prices are more visible and the Fed will “encourage greater use of exchange- traded instruments,” Geithner said March 26 in Congressional testimony.

Source

May 4, 2009

Mexico’s Economy Set for More Damage as Flu Wanes: Week Ahead

Filed under: economics — Tags: , — Moon @ 9:00 pm

Mexico heads into a second week of economic damage from collapsed tourism and plunging consumer spending even as authorities say the country’s swine flu outbreak is on the wane.

Theaters, restaurants and other venues where crowds gather will remain shut at least until tomorrow. Officials, who said May 2 that the number of cases is now stable, will decide whether to maintain the restrictions today. Over the weekend, the majority of pedestrians in Mexico City continued wearing face masks after 590 cases and 22 deaths from the flu were confirmed.

“This is a very serious blow to the economy that adds to an already difficult situation,” said Sergio Luna, chief economist at Citigroup Inc.’s Banamex unit, the country’s second-largest lender. “Apparently the measures taken by the authorities are working, and that’s great news in terms of how long this will last.”

Every day that passes with the current restraints in place costs Mexico around 2 billions pesos ($145 million) of lost gross domestic product, Luna said. Should the crisis end after a total of two weeks, the economy will lose another 0.3 percent of GDP this year, he said. Finance Minister Agustin Carstens estimated on April 29 it could take three months of a swine flu emergency to cut 0.3 to 0.5 percent from GDP.

Health Minister Jose Cordova said yesterday the epidemic is in a “declining phase” and appears to have “contained itself.” He said the swine flu shows a 4 percent mortality rate, compared with 70 percent in cases of the SARS virus.

Tourism Revenue

“It is very likely that restaurants and other economic activities will resume on Wednesday,” Cordova said in a press conference on Sunday night.

Mexico’s tourism revenue may fall 43 percent to $7.58 billion this year as international travel collapses on fear of the flu, Tourism Minister Rodolfo Elizondo said May 2 in an interview on Radio Formula. Tourism is Mexico’s third-largest source of foreign currency, after oil exports and remittances from abroad.

“Mexico is almost without foreign tourism,” Elizondo said in a separate radio interview.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB, Mexico’s largest private airport operator, fell 13 percent last week as investors bet the flu would hit traffic passing through airports.

Local consumers, too, are staying home to guard against infection, cutting internal demand for the time being by as much as 15 percent, Luna said online payday cash loan. Consumer spending accounts for about 25 percent of the economy.

‘Short-Lived Crisis’

Banamex now expects Mexico’s economy to shrink 4.9 percent in 2009, compared with its previous estimate of 3.5 percent, Luna said. Including the impact of swine flu the contraction could be 5.2 percent, he said.

Carstens’s estimate for a flu-related slowdown would be “consistent with a moderately short-lived crisis,” Rafael de la Fuente, an economist at BNP Paribas in New York, wrote in a May 1 research note.

Mexico’s peso fell 4.5 percent to 13.7786 per dollar on May 1 from the time the government first ordered schools closed to help stop the spread of the virus.

“We believe the move on the peso on the back of the swine flu was overdone,” de la Fuente wrote. “We target 13.35” pesos per dollar.

Mark Mobius, who helps oversee $20 billion in emerging- market assets at San Mateo, California-based Templeton Asset Management Ltd., said he expects the effects of the flu on Mexican companies to be limited.

“Maybe 5 percent of what they were going to do is not going to be done,” Mobius said in interview in Bali, Indonesia. “But that doesn’t necessarily mean earnings will be going down.”

Stocks, Bonds, Peso

Mexico’s benchmark Bolsa index fell 3 percent last week, the sharpest weekly decline in almost two months. Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB dropped 7.4 percent to 21.70 pesos. The country’s largest publicly-traded lender last week announced a 16 percent decline in first quarter profit as past-due loans reached 2.3 percent of total lending.

Yields on Mexico’s 10 percent bond due December 2024, the country’s most actively-traded security, rose by 3 basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 8.01 percent. The bond’s price fell 0.3 centavo to 117.66 centavos per peso, according to Banco Santander SA.

The peso weakened 3.28 percent against the dollar last week, to 13.7786 pesos per dollar, from 13.34 on April 24.

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