Treasuries rose for a second week as investors speculated that efforts to cut the Federal budget deficit may damp economic growth and awaited a policy statement next week from the Federal Reserve.
Ten-year note yields fell to the lowest level in a month even as Standard & Poor’s put the U.S. government on notice that it risks losing its AAA credit rating. Gains were tempered by advances in stocks. The U.S. will sell $99 billion in notes in the coming week, and the Federal Open Market Committee opens its two-day meeting on April 26.
“You are looking at an economy that’s just getting off low levels,” said David Coard, head of fixed-income trading in New York at Williams Capital Group, a brokerage for institutional investors. “The market is looking for guidance from the FOMC. We’re looking for clues as to when the Fed may possibly begin to change course with respect to monetary policy.”
Two-year note yields dropped three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 0.66 percent in New York, from 0.69 percent on April 15, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The 0.75 percent security due in March 2013 rose 7/32, or $2.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 6/32.
Ten-year note yields fell one basis point to 3.40 percent, from 3.41 percent on April 15.
Treasuries were headed for their first monthly gain since January, a 0.54 percent return, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Treasury Master index.
Shortened Week
Volume declined in a shortened week. Treasuries trading closed at 2 p.m. in New York on April 21 and were shut April 22 for the Good Friday holiday under a Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association recommendation. About $980 billion in U.S. debt changed hands this past week, compared with $1.5 trillion in the five days ended April 15, according to Icap Plc, the world’s largest interdealer broker.
Fed policy makers will leave the target rate for overnight lending between banks unchanged in the coming week at zero to 0.25 percent, where it’s been since December 2008, according to all 80 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Officials, who last met on March 15, may discuss what path the central bank will take when its program to purchase $600 billion in Treasuries ends in June.
“The last time the Fed met it was right after the catastrophe in Japan, so there could have been a sense the Fed held back to see how the markets and economies reacted to those troubling circumstances,” said Jim Vogel, head of agency-debt research at FTN in Memphis, Tennessee, referring to Japan’s record earthquake on March 11. “The Fed may be freer to discuss their general economic outlook. That will have people tuned to the FOMC.”
Economic Data
Treasuries gained on Thursday, April 21, as the Philadelphia Fed’s general economic index tumbled to 18.5 in April, the lowest level since November, while initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased to 403,000 in the week ended April 16, Labor Department data showed. Bloomberg surveys forecast an index reading of 36.9 and a jobless-claim decline to 390,000.
U.S. gross domestic product slowed to a 1.8 percent annual growth pace in the first quarter, according to the median forecast of 32 economists in a Bloomberg News survey, down from 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter and 2.6 percent in the third. The Commerce Department reports the data on April 28.
Treasury gains were limited this past week as stocks rose on better-than-estimated corporate earnings reports. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) gained 1.3 percent, while the MSCI World Index climbed 1.6 percent, the biggest weekly gain in a month.
The dollar fell against all 16 of its most-traded counterparts, in part on speculation the Fed will lag behind other central banks in boosting interest rates. The European Central Bank raised its key rate on April 7 to 1.25 percent from a record low 1 percent.
Treasury Auctions
The Treasury Department said it will sell $35 billion in two-year notes, $35 billion in five-year debt and $29 billion in seven-year securities at auctions on three consecutive days beginning April 26. The sizes in the trio of offerings have been unchanged since October, and matched the average forecast in a Bloomberg survey of nine of the Fed’s primary dealers.
The five-year auction on April 27 has been rescheduled to 11:30 a.m. New York time, before the Fed releases its statement at 12:30 p.m., followed by a public briefing by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke at 2:15 p.m. under a new system. Bids are usually due by 1 p.m.
The U.S. sold a record $14 billion of five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yesterday, drawing a negative yield for a second straight offering. The yield was negative 0.180 percent, compared with the forecast of negative 0.1825 percent in a survey of 6 primary dealers.
‘Paying a Premium’
“People are paying a premium to own protection against inflation,” said James Golden, head of government trading in New York at Jefferies Group Inc., which as one of the 20 primary dealers is obligated to bid at U.S. debt auctions.
A bond market measure of inflation expectations the Fed uses to help determine monetary policy was at 3.06 percentage points, compared with 2.82 percentage points on March 23. It reached a 10-month high of 3.28 percentage points in December. The five-year, five-year forward break-even rate projects what the pace of consumer price increases may be beginning in 2016. It averaged 2.78 percentage points over the past five years.
The benchmark 10-year note’s real yield, its yield minus the year-over-year core consumer price index, was 2.27 percent yesterday, compared with a 10-year median of 2.14 percent.
Treasuries also advanced this past week on speculation Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis may worsen. Greece’s fiscal problems pushed yields on the nation’s two-year notes up to record highs. The yield climbed April 21 to 23.3 percent, the highest since before the euro was introduced in 1999.
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