Ottawa looks to Asia after U.S. rejects Keystone pipeline project
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WASHINGTON • If timing is everything, as the saying goes, then Matt Blunt might consider a job giving advice on when to make career changes.
Blunt picked 2004 as the year to run for governor of Missouri. It turned into a strong year for Republicans and, at age 33, he became America’s youngest governor.
In his new incarnation, Blunt last year became chief spokesman and a lobbyist in Washington for Detroit’s Big Three automakers just as the American automotive industry was enjoying a resurgence.
It is one of several positions Blunt holds these days that enable him to prove life after Missouri’s Governor’s Mansion can be rewarding and, he says, enjoyable.
As president of the American Automotive Policy Council, one of Blunt’s main tasks is reminding Congress of his industry’s recent success, a rare good news story about American manufacturing.
Two years after General Motors and Chrysler emerged from bankruptcy, both companies, along with Ford, reported profits and increasing sales in 2011. Their turnaround is hailed in reports such as a recent Time magazine cover story titled, “How America Started Selling Cars Again.”
Yet many Americans — some of them in Congress — see the automotive industry as bloated and inefficient, surviving on government bailouts.
“What some people believe about automobile manufacturers, the American-based companies, isn’t accurate,” Blunt said. “The companies today are fundamentally different than they were just a few years ago, in terms of what they make and how they make it.”
Blunt’s portfolio these days includes the vital matters affecting American carmakers, including global trade agreements, new fuel economy standards and a recent recommendation to ban texting and cellphone use in automobiles.
Blunt, who turned 41 in November, is leading a life different from his sometimes rocky four years as a young governor, in which he endured criticism for his cuts to Medicaid and low approval ratings at times.
After leaving office in January 2009, he moved swiftly into the world of business. Besides his Big Three job, he is a director for Copart Inc., an online auto auction company in California that claims to sell 1 million vehicles yearly. He is a senior adviser for Rubicon Global, an Atlanta-based waste management firm, and an advisory board member for private equity funds.
Rather than living in Jefferson City or Springfield, Blunt, his wife, Melanie, and sons Branch, 6, and Brooks, who turned 2 on New Year’s Day, reside now in Middleburg, Va., situated in rolling horse country that has been home to such notables as Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis and Elizabeth Taylor.
Blunt says he is comfortable in a part of the country where he has spent considerable time. He graduated from the Naval Academy in nearby Annapolis, Md., and he was stationed on a Virginia-based ship. His wife is a Virginia native.
In recent interviews, Blunt, whose father, Roy, just completed his first year in the U.S. Senate, said he has no regrets in deciding not to seek a second term.
“I loved being governor. It was a great experience. I was proud of what we accomplished,” he said. “But I don’t know that over another four-year term, I would have been particularly effective. I don’t know there’s much that I would have gotten done.”
He added, “I don’t necessarily miss politics.”
understanding autos
Blunt is dealing now with politics of a different order, in some cases global. He was outspoken last fall in pressing to keep Japan out of the budding Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade alliance, noting Japan’s protectionist policies that keep out all but a few thousand American cars yearly.
Trade is a key focus for Blunt but just one of many focuses for an industry that experts say needs help.
Joe Wiesenfelder, executive editor of Chicago-based Cars.com, said he sees “a gross misunderstanding in Washington about developing and building cars and how long it takes, about the inconsistency of the market and about inconsistency of regulation and the effects on companies.”
Until two years ago, Ford, Chrysler and GM were aligned in Washington with the Auto Alliance, which also includes foreign automakers. But the interests of domestic and foreign companies diverged just as legislation and government rules were becoming more consequential.
Blunt’s background as a governor likely played a role in his selection as the industry sought to navigate tricky political waters in Congress after the controversial bailouts No teletrak payday loan.
Blunt technically is not a registered federal lobbyist because he spends less than 20 percent of his time lobbying. Nevertheless, he works the halls of Congress, trumpeting the key role of the Big Three in the nation’s economy. GM, Ford and Chrysler will add 34,000 jobs in coming years, he said, which translates to 400,000 jobs in the economy supported by automotive plants.
“The American companies are competitive, they are productive and they are making great products,” Blunt said, sounding like the car salesman he has become. “Because of that, what recovery we do have in the American economy, the automobile makers are playing a big part.”
As a self-described conservative Republican, Blunt might find old allies who decry the $80 billion bailout of Chrysler and GM. Most of the money has been paid back, and the White House projected the cost to taxpayers at $14 billion.
“Decisions that President Bush made at the end of his administration and President Obama made early in his administration have had a successful outcome,” he said. “It’s always an academic debate whether a different road map would have led to the success.”
As governor, Blunt was an advocate of smaller government. Those sensibilities could come into play as government moves more aggressively to dictate vehicle design.
After an agreement with both domestic and foreign manufacturers, the administration of President Barack Obama in November proposed nearly doubling fuel economy requirements to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. In 2010, the administration completed rules to raise the fuel standard to 35.5 mpg by 2016. The current requirement for new autos is 27.3 mpg.
Foreign-based manufacturers believe the White House has tilted the rules in favor of the domestic industry. True or not, the Big Three will need to be vigilant as regulations are implemented; their focus will be on easing the burden those regulations could cause.
“It’s the classic ‘devil’s in the details,’ and it will be very important to see the rules filed by all the agencies,” Blunt said.
Texting debated
Automakers took notice recently when the National Transportation Safety Board said states should ban texting and cellphone use in vehicles. The board made the recommendation after concluding that a driver’s texting was a factor in a deadly pileup near St. Louis.
Blunt said companies he represents are paying close attention because “they really do believe that you can integrate technology into a vehicle that’s not only safe but safer than the way most drivers use technology today.”
“As you think about what you might or might not ban in a vehicle, it’s important to do it in a way that wouldn’t inhibit safety ideas some of the companies have today, and at the same time be realistic,” he said. “Quite frankly, I don’t think (a cellphone ban is) very realistic.”
As a lobbyist, Blunt seemingly could have a ready ear from father Roy, who won election this month to a Senate GOP leadership slot. Matt Blunt said he doesn’t intend to talk business at family gatherings, perhaps because Roy Blunt has in the past been criticized for ties to lobbyists in his family and otherwise.
Matt’s brother, Andy Blunt, works at a law firm in Jefferson City with a long list of lobbying clients. His sister, Amy, maintains some lobbying clients in her business in the state capital, which largely deals with helping candidates comply with Federal Election Commission rules. Roy Blunt’s wife, Abigail, was a lobbyist for tobacco giant Philip Morris before joining Kraft’s legislative affairs team.
Andy Blunt said his brother arrived in a position that suits his talents.
“He’s a great manager and executive and has the ability to focus on details while thinking about long-term strategy,” he said.
Blunt, who acknowledged driving a German-made automobile in the past, also is walking the talk now — driving it, actually.
He gets around Washington in a Chrysler-made Jeep Grand Cherokee.
World stocks markets fell Wednesday, with trading thinned by year-end holidays and mixed economic news out of the U.S. and Japan.
Benchmark oil hovered above $101 per barrel while the dollar fell against the euro and the yen.
European stocks dropped in early trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.2 percent to 5,501.25. Germany’s DAX was 0.9 percent lower at 5,839.98 and France’s CAC-40 lost 0.4 percent to 3,092.01. Wall Street also appeared headed for a lower opening. Dow Jones industrial futures rose 0.2 percent to 12,199 while S&P 500 futures dipped 0.3 percent to 1,256.60.
Earlier in Asia, trading was subdued, as it typically is between the Christmas holiday and New Year’s.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 0.2 percent to close at 8,423.62. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.6 percent to 18,518.67, while South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.9 percent to 1,825.12. Australia’s S&P ASX 200 lost 1.3 percent to 4,088.80. Benchmarks in Singapore, Taiwan and Indonesia were also lower.
Japan’s industrial output dropped a seasonally adjusted 2.6 percent last month _ the first decline in two months. But the negative news was mitigated by expectations of rebounding manufacturing and production this month and next, which helped to mute stock market losses.
The Shanghai Composite Index reversed course after early losses, rising 0.2 percent to 2,170.01. But the smaller Shenzhen Composite Index sank 0.5 percent at 849.76.
Some investors were “dumping shares” because Beijing has failed to take steps they expected to stimulate slowing economic growth, said Peter Lai, investment manager for DBS Vickers in Hong Kong.
“Some investors believed there would be a reduction in interest rates or the bank reserve ratio. But this hasn’t happened,” Lai said.
Tokyo Electric Power plunged 11.8 percent, a day after Japanese Industry Minister Yukio Edano suggested that the embattled utility be put under temporary state control and warned the company against resorting to electricity bill hikes.
TEPCO operates the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant, which was heavily damaged in the March earthquake and tsunami, and owes massive compensation payments to people and companies harmed by a nuclear disaster at the plant faxless pay day loans.
Hong Kong-listed property shares also slumped. China Overseas Land & Investment slid 3 percent. China Resources Land lost 2.7 percent.
China Mengniu Dairy, the country’s biggest dairy company, plummeted 24 percent in Hong Kong after acknowledging that a cancer-causing toxin had been found in milk produced by the company. Mengniu apologized and said no tainted milk had made it to the market. The government blamed the problem on bad feed given to cows.
Retail shares also slid on growing anxiety over the global economy in 2012. Hong Kong-listed jewelry retailer Chow Sang Sang shed 4 percent. Australian department store chain David Jones fell 2.1 percent and Woolworth’s lost 0.9 percent.
On Wall Street on Tuesday, the Dow Jones lost less than 0.1 percent to close at 12,291.35. The S&P 500 was up marginally to 1,265.43. The Nasdaq composite rose 0.3 percent to 2,625.20.
U.S. consumer confidence surged to an eight-month high, but home prices fell in 19 of the 20 cities tracked by the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index. That report dampened investors’ enthusiasm about a jump in consumer confidence to the highest level since April.
Benchmark crude oil rose 2 cents to $101.36 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $1.66 to finish at $101.34 per barrel on the Nymex on Tuesday.
In currency trading, the euro fell to $1.3075 from $1.3069 late Tuesday in New York. The euro has been weak because of worries about Europe’s government debt crisis. It is still trading just above an 11-month low of $1.2943 reached on Dec. 14.
The dollar fell to 77.73 yen from 77.85 yen.
+%3Cp%3E+Stocks+ended+Friday+mixed+after+a+roller-coaster+week+in+which+all+three+indexes+each+lost+more+than+2.5%25.%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3EAfter+moving+up+more+than+1%25+in+the+first+hour+of+trading%2C+stocks+steadily+retreated.+%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3E%3Cp%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3E%3Cp%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3EThe+Dow+Jones+industrial+average+%28%29+closed+the+day+down+2+points%2C+or+0.02%25.+The+S%26amp%3BP+500+%28%29+moved+up+4+points%2C+or+0.3%25.+The+Nasdaq+%28%29+increased+15+points%2C+or+0.6%25.+Both+the+Dow+and+S%26amp%3BP+shed+2.8%25+for+the+week%2C+and+the+Nasdaq+dropped+3.4%25.%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3EPart+of+the+sell-off+came+after+Fitch+put+seven+European+countries+on+credit+watch+negative%2C+citing+the+higher+probability+that+it+could+downgrade+these+nations+in+the+next+few+months.+Still%2C+investors+breathed+a+sigh+of+relief+that+France%2C+in+particular%2C+retained+its+pristine+AAA+rating.%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3EBeyond+France%2C+Fitch+Ratings+also+affirmed+the+ratings+of+Belgium%2C+Spain%2C+Slovenia%2C+Italy%2C+Ireland+and+Cyprus%2C+while+putting+them+on+review+for+potential+near-term+downgrades+Friday+after+the+European+markets+closed.+%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3E%26quot%3BEveryone+was+concerned+that+France+would+lose+its+AAA%2C+so+overall+investors+are+taking+Fitch%27s+moves+as+more+of+a+positive%2C%26quot%3B+said+Michael+James%2C+senior+equity+trader+at+Wedbush+Morgan+Securities.%3C%2Fp%3EEurope%27s+odds+of+success%3Cp%3EAhead+of+the+opening+bell%2C+the+government+released+its+latest+data+on+inflation%2C+which+showed+consumer+prices+rose+at+a+3.4%25+annual+rate+in+November.+That+was+virtually+unchanged+from+the+prior+month.%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3E%26quot%3BThe+good+news+is+that+we%27ve+had+slightly+better+economic+numbers%2C+but+the+bigger+picture+is+there%27s+no+confidence%2C%26quot%3B+said+Ted+Weisberg%2C+president+of+Seaport+Securities.%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3EWeisberg+and+other+traders+said+volumes+have+been+particularly+light+in+the+past+week+both+ahead+of+the+holiday+break+and+because+few+investors+have+conviction+over+the+market%27s+direction.+%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3EFriday+also+marks+%26quot%3Bquadruple+witching%2C%26quot%3B+when+four+types+of+contracts+expire+–+those+tied+to+market+index+futures%2C+market+index+options%2C+stock+options+and+stock+futures.+%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3EWhile+many+traders+try+to+settle+out+those+contracts+ahead+of+expiration%2C+there+is+often+some+volatility+on+the+actual+day.%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3E+%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3E%26quot%3BWhen+you+have+options+expirations%2C+it+tends+to+skew+trading%2C%26quot%3B+said+Weisberg.+%26quot%3BThey%27re+sort+of+throwaway+days.%26quot%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3EU.S.+stocks+closed+higher+Thursday+on+upbeat+jobs+and+manufacturing+reports%2C+but+the+market+remains+nervous+about+the+European+debt+crisis.%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3EAfter+the+close+Thursday%2C+Fitch+downgraded+seven+banks%2C+including+Bank+of+America+%28%2C+Fortune+500%29%2C+Morgan+Stanley+%28%2C+Fortune+500%29%2C+and+Goldman+Sachs+%28%2C+Fortune+500%29%2C+as+well+as+Europe%27s+Barclays%2C+Societe+Generale%2C+BNP+Paribas%2C+Deutsche+Bank+and+Credit+Suisse.+Most+major+banks+ended+the+day+down%2C+with+Goldman+Sachs+dropping+almost+2%25.+%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3EEconomy%3A+Federal+officials+also+said+Friday+that+Europe%27s+crisis+could+wind+up+being+a+job+killer+for+the+United+States.+%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3ENew+York+Fed+President+William+Dudley+told+lawmakers+that+deterioration+in+the+European+economy+could+reduce+demand+for+U.S.+products.+And+Steven+Kamin%2C+director+of+the+division+of+international+finance+at+the+Federal+Reserve%2C+echoed+those+comments+with+equally+dire+testimony.%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3ECompanies%3A+Shares+of+Zynga+%28%29+rose+10%25+in+their+public+debut+on+the+Nasdaq%2C+before+closing+the+day+down+5%25+from+its+IPO+price.+The+maker+of+popular+Facebook+game+Farmville+priced+shares+at+%2410+apiece+in+the+its+initial+public+offering+late+Thursday.%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3EResearch+in+Motion+%28%29+shares+dropped+sharply%2C+a+day+after+the+BlackBerry+maker+offered+a+disappointing+outlook+for+the+current+quarter+and+next+year%2C+when+it+released+its+earnings+results.%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3E+%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3EWorld+markets%3A+European+stocks+closed+the+day+with+modest+losses.+Britain%27s+FTSE+100+%28%29+ticked+down+0.3%25+while+the+DAX+%28%29+in+Germany+edged+down+0.5%25.+France%27s+CAC+40+%28%29+shed+0.9%25.%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3EAsian+markets+ended+higher.+The+Shanghai+Composite+%28%29+rose+2%25%2C+the+Hang+Seng+%28%29+in+Hong+Kong+gained+1.4%25+and+Japan%27s+Nikkei+%28%29+edged+higher+0.3%25.%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3ECurrencies+and+commodities%3A+The+dollar+fell+against+the+Japanese+yen%2C+the+euro+and+British+pound.+%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3EOil+for+January+delivery+increased+12+cents+to+%2493.99+a+barrel.+%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3EGold+futures+for+February+delivery+rose+%2420.70+to+%241%2C597.90+an+ounce.+%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3EBonds%3A+The+price+on+the+benchmark+10-year+U.S.+Treasury+increased+pushing+the+yield+down+to+1.86%25+from+1.91%25+late+Thursday.+%3C%2Fp%3E%3Cp%3E–+CNNMoney%27s+Aaron+Smith+contributed+to+this+report.%26nbsp%3B+%3C%2Fp%3E++%3Cp%3E%3Ca+href%3D%27http%3A%2F%2Fmoney.cnn.com%2F2011%2F12%2F16%2Fmarkets%2Fmarkets_newyork%2Findex.htm%27+rel%3D%27nofollow%27%3ESource%3C%2Fa%3E%3C%2Fp%3E+
The government delivered a blow to some desperate patients Friday as it ruled the blockbuster drug Avastin should no longer be used to treat advanced breast cancer.
Avastin is hailed for treating colon cancer and certain other malignancies. But the Food and Drug Administration said it appeared to be a false hope for breast cancer: Studies haven’t found that it helps those patients live longer or brings enough other benefit to outweigh its dangerous side effects.
“I did not come to this decision lightly,” said the FDA’s commissioner, Dr. Margaret Hamburg. But she said, “Sometimes despite the hopes of investigators, patients, industry and even the FDA itself, the results of rigorous testing can be disappointing.”
Avastin remains on the market to treat certain colon, lung, kidney and brain cancers. Doctors are free to prescribe any marketed drug as they see fit. So even though the FDA formally revoked Avastin’s approval as a breast cancer treatment, women could still receive it _ but their insurers may not pay for it. Some insurers already have quit in anticipation of FDA’s long-expected ruling.
However, “Medicare will continue to cover Avastin,” said Brian Cook, spokesman for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. The agency “will monitor the issue and evaluate coverage options as a result of action by the FDA but has no immediate plans to change coverage policies.”
Including infusion fees, a year’s treatment with Avastin can reach $100,000.
The ruling disappointed patients who believe Avastin is helping to curb their incurable cancer.
“It’s saved my life,” said a tearful Sue Boyce, 54, of Chicago. She’s taken Avastin in addition to chemotherapy since joining a research study in 2003. Her breast cancer eventually spread to her lungs, liver and brain, but Boyce says she is stable and faring well.
“So I’m hoping the insurance company will grandfather me in to continue taking it,” she said.
The Avastin saga began in 2008, when an initial study suggested the drug could delay tumor growth for a few months in women whose breast cancer had spread to other parts of the body. Over the objection of its own advisers and to the surprise of cancer groups, FDA gave Avastin conditional approval _ it could be sold for such women while manufacturer Genentech tried to prove it really worked.
The problem: Ultimately, the tumor effect was even smaller than first thought. Across repeated studies, Avastin patients didn’t live longer or have a higher quality of life. Yet the drug causes some life-threatening risks, including severe high blood pressure, massive bleeding, heart attack or heart failure and tears in the stomach and intestines, the FDA concluded. In two public hearings _ one last year and one this summer _ FDA advisers urged the agency to revoke that approval.
“The science is clear: Breast cancer patients are more likely to be harmed than helped by Avastin,” said Diana Zuckerman of the National Research Center for Women and Families in Washington.
Genentech had argued the drug should remain available while it conducted more research to see if certain subsets of breast cancer patients might benefit, and some patients and their doctors had argued passionately for the drug.
“There certainly are patients who benefit tremendously,” said Boyce’s oncologist, Dr. Melody Cobleigh of Rush University Medical Center. “We’ll just be battling with the insurance companies.”
“For those not fortunate enough to be on Medicare or an insurance plan that covers it, it’s a death sentence,” Christi Turnage of Madison, Miss., said of the FDA’s decision. Her breast cancer had moved into her lungs before she began Avastin three years ago and the spreading stopped, but Turnage said her insurer is ending coverage and she will seek financial help from Genentech’s access program.
Hamburg said that she considered those arguments but that scientifically there are no clues yet to identify who those rare Avastin responders would be _ putting a lot of people at risk in order for a few to get some as-yet-unknowable benefit. She urged Genentech to do that research, saying the FDA “absolutely” would reconsider if the company could find the right evidence.
Genentech, part of Swiss drugmaker Roche Group, pledged to begin that research.
“We are disappointed with the outcome,” said company chief medical officer Dr. Hal Barron. “We remain committed to the many women with this incurable disease and will continue to provide help through our patient support programs to those who may be facing obstacles to receiving their treatment in the United States.”
The breast cancer organization Susan G. Komen for the Cure said that it respected the FDA’s decision and that it was time for researchers to concentrate on finding so-called biomarkers that would tell which drug is right for which patient.
“Each type of cancer is very different from another in important ways, and in the end it’s no surprise that Avastin’s effectiveness may not be equivalent against all types of cancer,” said Dr. Neal Meropol of University Hospitals Case Medical Center in Cleveland, who has long used Avastin for colon cancer.
U.S. stock futures are little changed ahead of a full week of corporate earnings reports.
Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., and IBM are among U.S. companies reporting third-quarter earnings results Monday.
Investors will also receive a report from the Federal Reserve on production from factories, mines and utilities in September. Economists expect that industrial production rose slightly last month.
The stock market is coming off of its best week in more than two years no fax needed payday loans. The S&P 500 rose 6 percent last week, its best performance since July 2009.
Two hours before the opening bell, Dow futures were unchanged at 11,565. S&P 500 futures were up less than a point to 1,220. Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1, or 0.1 percent, to 2,366. European shares are mixed.
In response to my Sunday business story about the struggles at St. Louis Union Station, a number of readers have suggested that one of the problems is that you have to pay for parking there.
The parking rate, according to the venue’s website, is $1 for every half hour. And there’s a flat rate of $12 for 6 to 10 hours.
If you forgo the parking lot in the back, there is street parking along Market Street. But that is metered parking, so you still have to pay for that and deal with the hassle of plugging a meter.
I can see pros and cons to both sides. On the one hand, you don’t have to pay to park at other (and pardon me for using the term) “malls” in the region. Of course, Union Station’s management doesn’t consider the venue a mall, but a tourist destination and historic landmark.
But in any case, I think it’s fair to say that nobody like to pay to park payday loans. And if you’re going to do so, you have to give people a good reason to do so.
On the other hand, Union Station is in downtown, where you don’t find a lot of free parking. And it’s not too far from other major entertainment venues downtown — Busch Stadium, Scottrade Center, the Peabody Opera House, etc. So if it did have a free parking lot, Cardinals and Blues fans might end up using it a lot (to the chagrin of other parking lot attendants around town).
And I should add that paid parking lot no doubt brings in much-needed revenue to Union Station.
So what do you think? Do you think Union Station should charge for parking?
Wednesday was a good day for Fawad Khan.
He got up shortly before 3 a.m. and headed to a bank of computers in his Mississauga basement. While his family slept, he started trading.
One screen charted the euro in real time. It looked like the seismic readout for an earthquake. Trading in this kind of market, with one’s own money, is not for the faint of heart.
At 3 a.m., Khan bought euros, expecting the currency’s value to rise. When it did, he sold. Then he bought low and sold high, again. Within an hour he was up $750 (US). For his third move, he went short, predicting the euro would fall. It did, and he made another $300. It was 4:30 a.m.
“Then I went back to sleep,” says Khan, 62, a civil engineer who made day trading his full-time job after emigrating from Pakistan in 1999.
At 1 p.m., Khan was back in the basement of his modest bungalow. He sold short again, both the euro and the S&P 500 stock index. He called it a day at 2:30 p.m. — $2,935 (US) richer after three hours of trading.
“If you go with the (market) trend, you make money. If the bull is in command, you follow the bull. If the bear is in command, you follow the bear,” Khan explains, referring to the beasts that signify a rising or falling market.
It sounds simple enough, but Khan is part of a relatively small group making money in today’s wildly volatile global markets. Most investors are watching their investments, including retirement savings, evaporate. Although marked by frenetic swings, the overall market tendency is down, some 20 per cent since spring.
“We’ve seen a lot of wealth shed away in the last few months. And the ones who lost it are the people who can’t afford to lose it,” says Eric Kirzner, professor of finance at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management.
“Ninety per cent of the people lose money,” says Khan, “and the money they lose goes into the pockets of the 10 per cent making money.”
This lopsided formula rings true to many these days. It partly explains the anger of protesters “occupying” Wall Street for the past three weeks. It might also explain why recent statements on the BBC by an unknown trader — Goldman Sachs rules the world; traders dream of market turmoil and recession — went viral.
“He was honest and forthright in the most scary way,” Rotman’s dean, Roger Martin, says of Alessio Rastani. “This guy was absolutely correct. What he said is, ‘traders like us couldn’t care less whether the economy is doing well or badly. . . all that has to happen is for there to be volatility.’”
There’s nothing of the vulture in Khan. He’s the soft-spoken father of five children who warns against greed and never risks more than $900 in leveraged currency contracts. Yet he too gets a rush from the kind of volatility that has many fearing they’ll never afford retirement.
“I love it,” he says.
The small group of winners in today’s market is largely made up of professional traders selling financial products the uninitiated wouldn’t understand, like index futures, or buying bear market exchange-traded funds. They are people making short-term trades while riding the market’s ups and downs.
“High frequency trading is all the rage now,” says Dave Poxon, 45, a day trader in Whitby.
Poxon says “click traders” — buying and selling with a click of the mouse — can’t keep up with those, like himself, who use algorithms to ride the volatility. He said he and two colleagues made a total of about $5,000 to $6,000 (US) a day last week using an algorithm he designed.
There’s no clearer sign of the profitability of volatility than HBP S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Bull Plus, an exchange-traded fund (ETF). It was the most profitable mutual fund on the Toronto Stock Exchange during the last three months, its value rising an eye-popping 178 per cent.
The leveraged fund doesn’t buy and sell stock. It simply tracks the performance of the VIX Index — known by insiders as the Fear Index — which measures the volatility of U.S. stocks. The more volatile the market, the more money it makes.
“Volatility has been a very lucrative asset class to be invested in,” says an official with Horizons BetaPro, which manages the ETF. The official, who didn’t want to be named, stressed the fund isn’t for typical, long-term investors: “If the market isn’t volatile, you would lose gads of money on that ETF.”
Martin argues that big players are increasingly counting on market volatility. He points especially to hedge funds, which in 2008 controlled $2 trillion of assets in the U.S.
In theory, hedge funds reduce risk by placing bets in opposite directions. They should therefore make money no matter which way the market goes. But the way most hedge fund managers get paid magnifies the theory to the extreme, Martin argues.
Managers are paid according to the “2 and 20 formula” — 2 per cent of the assets they manage plus 20 per cent of the increase they generate. Big paycheques are made when markets shoot up or down.
“The more back and forth the better,” Martin says.
As the market swings, the incentive is to “roll the dice” and make a killing. If the bet turns out wrong, the manger has lost other people’s money — including, perhaps, a pension fund’s — yet still walks away with the 2 per cent fee. If the trade works, the millions or billions of dollars the fund earns is at the expense of other investors or companies because the market is a zero sum game, Martin says.
Either way, Martin argues that hedge fund managers are getting filthy rich without adding value or jobs to the economy. He calls it “the very biggest problem with the economy now.”
Sometimes the action raises allegations of crime. Canadian insurer Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. is suing a group of hedge funds, accusing them of spreading false information to drive down its stock and then profit through short-selling. (In short selling, a trader borrows shares to sell, hoping to buy them back later at a lower price. If that happens, the trader settles the loan and pockets the difference.)
Short sellers make money when stocks go down, which explains their reputation as vultures. Kirzner argues they help create an efficient market by moving stocks where they belong, pointing to the recent decline in share price of Research in Motion — maker of the BlackBerry — as an example.
It’s a game many are playing now, but one with a history of dire warnings. The legendary short-seller Jesse Livermore made millions betting short when stock markets crashed in 1929. But he lost as many fortunes as he made. In 1940, after throwing back two drinks, he walked into the cloakroom of a swanky Manhattan hotel and blew out his brains.
Fawad Khan isn’t playing for high stakes. He’s happy making what he describes as a decent living.
He was introduced to the stock market while working as a contractor in Pakistan. He built a home for a businessman who was so grateful he gave Khan a quick course on trading.
In Canada, he realized that contracting work involved the same kind of “palm greasing” it did in Pakistan. So he gave it up, studied trading and for the past nine years has been focusing on buying and selling currencies.
“It’s beautiful work,” he says. “I can do it any time I want. No business will give you that freedom.”
He says most days a handful of people will join him in his basement and copy his trades. He doesn’t charge them, unless they get hooked and want to take a course he gives now and then. He urges them to trade with a “stop loss” of $50 or $100 — if you lose that much, stop trading.
“The people who know this business, they make money. The people who are greedy, the people who have fear, they lose money.”
So what should a cautious trader do these days?
“Keep selling the euro short,” he says. “Short selling is good advice.”
Unless you’re Jesse Livermore, of course.
Big winners
Canada’s top performing mutual funds and ETFs over the last three months:
HBP S&P 500 VIX Short-term Futures Bull Plus: up 178.7%
HBP S&P 500 VIX Short Term Future: up 87.0%
HBP COMEX® Gold Bullion Bull Plus ETF: up 39.6%
Friedberg Global Macro Hedge (US$): up 29.8%
HBP S&P/TSX Energy Bear Plus ETF: up 28.0%
Three former aides of a Japanese ruling party powerbroker were convicted Monday in a political funding scandal, dealing a further blow to his status in the struggling party ahead of his own trial.
Ichiro Ozawa engineered the Democratic Party of Japan’s rise to power in 2009, but was charged this year with political funding violations for allegedly overseeing false accounting by his aides.
The Tokyo District Court gave the former aides suspended prison terms ranging from one to three years for accepting $1.3 million (100 million yen) in illegal donations from a construction company and for failing to register a $5.2 million (400 million yen) loan from Ozawa to his funding body in a 2004 Tokyo land deal.
All three aides have denied any wrongdoing, as has Ozawa, who says he is confident of proving his innocence at his own trial, which starts Oct. 6.
Opposition leaders were quick to attack Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s 3-week-old government after the ruling.
Opposition Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker Nobuteru Ishihara said the aides’ convictions were serious and “their boss, Ichiro Ozawa, bears even more serious political responsibility business
In a boost to the region’s moribund auto industry, General Motors will inject $380 million into its Wentzville assembly plant, adding 1,850 jobs and a new pickup line as part of a proposed new labor contract, the United Auto Workers announced Tuesday.
The announcement is part of GM’s commitment to invest a total of $2.5 billion in facilities nationwide and create or retain 6,400 jobs over the life of the four-year contract, according to the UAW.
The union and GM reached an agreement Friday, but did not reveal details of expansion plans until Tuesday. The 48,500 union members working for GM nationwide must still ratify the contract next week.
UAW Local 2250 Chairman Mike Bullock said the contract called initially for the Wentzville plant to add a second production shift of between 400 and 700 people in the first quarter of 2012. Local 2250 represents hourly workers at the Wentzville plant, which produces Chevrolet Express and GMC Savana full-size vans. About 1,300 people in one production shift currently work at the Wentzville facility.
“This will be a real shot in the arm for Wentzville and the St. Louis area,” Bullock said in a phone interview. “This really is a tribute to the men and women who work at the Wentzville assembly center and produce the best quality product at the best cost.”
The local automotive industry has been devastated in recent years. Closures included the Ford plant in Hazelwood five years ago and Chrysler’s two Fenton plants in 2008 and 2009. Multiple local automobile suppliers that feed those plants with parts also closed. In 2009, GM eliminated a shift at the Wentzville plant, affecting more than 800 workers.
Some were laid off, and some took voluntary transfers to GM facilities elsewhere.
Some of those transferred and laid-off employees could be eligible for rehiring, according to UAW officials. Sixteen former Wentzville GM employees were transferred to GM’s Fairfax assembly plant in Kansas City, Kan., and 27 laid-off employees remain on Local 2250’s recall list.
GM also will be offering openings to unemployed GM union workers nationally who have recall rights. The number of such workers was unavailable.
Additionally, there are 350 people on a local referral list who could be tapped for the new jobs, Bullock said.
The investment by GM would pay for a 500,000-square-foot addition to the Wentzville’s current 3.7 million-square-foot facility, improvements to its paint department and other upgrades. The new contract also details plans for a midsize pickup to be produced in Wentzville. More than 1,000 workers would start working on that new line in 2013 for a 2014 model pickup, Bullock said.
“We’ve been waiting patiently a long time to hear this news,” said Tom Brune, UAW communications coordinator for Local 2250.
As Joe Gurrieri, 31, of O’Fallon, Mo., used a mechanical arm to swing dash panels into place on a steady stream of Chevy Express vans Tuesday, he said he was hopeful current workers would have more job security. Gurrieri, a 12-year employee, said he had returned to work in November after being laid off. “It’s good to be back, and it’s good to know we’ll be here for a while,” he said.
Some analysts have speculated that GM will shift production of its Chevrolet Colorado or GMC Canyon pickups, which currently are made in Shreveport, La., to Wentzville. The Shreveport assembly facility, which employs more than 900 people, is not owned by GM and had previously been slated to close as part of GM’s emergence from bankruptcy in 2009. A GM spokesman declined to comment on the pending contract or expansion details.
Last week, plant manager John Dansby told the Post-Dispatch that he believed Wentzville had been selected for expansion because of the plant’s emphasis on producing high quality vehicles at low costs.
“We’ve been working really hard at the plant to try to position ourselves to be very competitive,” Dansby said.
Last year, the plant forecast production of 80,000 vehicles and ended the year producing nearly 100,000.
“Our volumes are increasing, and the buying public has done a great job supporting our product,” he said.
TAX BREAKS
To help finance the expansion, Wentzville’s board of aldermen approved last week partial tax abatement for GM if it expands. As part of the deal, GM would make “payments in lieu of taxes” to local school districts, and have 75 percent of its property taxes for the new development abated for 10 years.
Wentzville Mayor Paul Lambi said he was hopeful the new jobs would bring back what was lost when the GM plant downsized in 2009. “There was an unbelievable ripple effect,” Lambi said, describing the closure of nearby restaurants and retailers two years ago. “Every business that relies on retail sales was affected. Bringing back a second shift is extremely good news.”
A couple of miles from the plant, Dan Strantz, owner of Mama’s Grill, also welcomed the news. The diner’s location near the intersection of Highway 40 and Interstate 70 opened about a month and half ago, he said, but his family has been in the restaurant business since 1972. “It’ll be good that there will actually be people with money to go out and spend,” he said.
If the expansion proceeds, GM is likely to pursue state incentives. The automaker has been in talks with Gov. Jay Nixon’s office and Department of Economic Development officials for a year, according to the governor’s spokesman, Sam Murphey. The automaker has not yet applied for any state incentives.
“We are strongly encouraged by the recent steps GM has taken, and we look forward to continuing to work closely with GM throughout this process,” Murphey said in a statement Tuesday.
The UAW outlined investments proposed by GM at several other plants nationwide, including plans to invest $925 million at three Michigan factories that will generate 900 jobs during the life of the contract. GM also plans to invest in plants in Spring Hill, Tenn., which had been idled, and Fort Wayne, Ind., that will generate or preserve a combined 3,700 jobs.
Gerrion Grim, 53, of O’Fallon, Mo., has worked at the Wentzville plant for about 18 months. He said he was laid off for a while and returned to work in April. Now, he said, he would like to see job security. “I’m definitely hoping for some longevity,” he said. “I just hope it all goes well.”
Shane Anthony of the Post-Dispatch contributed to this report.
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