Lenon’s main business news

In response to my Sunday business story about the struggles at St. Louis Union Station, a number of readers have suggested that one of the problems is that you have to pay for parking there.

The parking rate, according to the venue’s website, is $1 for every half hour. And there’s a flat rate of $12 for 6 to 10 hours.

If you forgo the parking lot in the back, there is street parking along Market Street. But that is metered parking, so you still have to pay for that and deal with the hassle of plugging a meter.

I can see pros and cons to both sides. On the one hand, you don’t have to pay to park at other (and pardon me for using the term) “malls” in the region. Of course, Union Station’s management doesn’t consider the venue a mall, but a tourist destination and historic landmark.

But in any case, I think it’s fair to say that nobody like to pay to park payday loans. And if you’re going to do so, you have to give people a good reason to do so.

On the other hand, Union Station is in downtown, where you don’t find a lot of free parking. And it’s not too far from other major entertainment venues downtown — Busch Stadium, Scottrade Center, the Peabody Opera House, etc. So if it did have a free parking lot, Cardinals and Blues fans might end up using it a lot (to the chagrin of other parking lot attendants around town).

And I should add that paid parking lot no doubt brings in much-needed revenue to Union Station.

So what do you think? Do you think Union Station should charge for parking?

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Wednesday was a good day for Fawad Khan.

He got up shortly before 3 a.m. and headed to a bank of computers in his Mississauga basement. While his family slept, he started trading.

One screen charted the euro in real time. It looked like the seismic readout for an earthquake. Trading in this kind of market, with one’s own money, is not for the faint of heart.

At 3 a.m., Khan bought euros, expecting the currency’s value to rise. When it did, he sold. Then he bought low and sold high, again. Within an hour he was up $750 (US). For his third move, he went short, predicting the euro would fall. It did, and he made another $300. It was 4:30 a.m.

“Then I went back to sleep,” says Khan, 62, a civil engineer who made day trading his full-time job after emigrating from Pakistan in 1999.

At 1 p.m., Khan was back in the basement of his modest bungalow. He sold short again, both the euro and the S&P 500 stock index. He called it a day at 2:30 p.m. — $2,935 (US) richer after three hours of trading.

“If you go with the (market) trend, you make money. If the bull is in command, you follow the bull. If the bear is in command, you follow the bear,” Khan explains, referring to the beasts that signify a rising or falling market.

It sounds simple enough, but Khan is part of a relatively small group making money in today’s wildly volatile global markets. Most investors are watching their investments, including retirement savings, evaporate. Although marked by frenetic swings, the overall market tendency is down, some 20 per cent since spring.

“We’ve seen a lot of wealth shed away in the last few months. And the ones who lost it are the people who can’t afford to lose it,” says Eric Kirzner, professor of finance at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management.

“Ninety per cent of the people lose money,” says Khan, “and the money they lose goes into the pockets of the 10 per cent making money.”

This lopsided formula rings true to many these days. It partly explains the anger of protesters “occupying” Wall Street for the past three weeks. It might also explain why recent statements on the BBC by an unknown trader — Goldman Sachs rules the world; traders dream of market turmoil and recession — went viral.

“He was honest and forthright in the most scary way,” Rotman’s dean, Roger Martin, says of Alessio Rastani. “This guy was absolutely correct. What he said is, ‘traders like us couldn’t care less whether the economy is doing well or badly. . . all that has to happen is for there to be volatility.’”

There’s nothing of the vulture in Khan. He’s the soft-spoken father of five children who warns against greed and never risks more than $900 in leveraged currency contracts. Yet he too gets a rush from the kind of volatility that has many fearing they’ll never afford retirement.

“I love it,” he says.

The small group of winners in today’s market is largely made up of professional traders selling financial products the uninitiated wouldn’t understand, like index futures, or buying bear market exchange-traded funds. They are people making short-term trades while riding the market’s ups and downs.

“High frequency trading is all the rage now,” says Dave Poxon, 45, a day trader in Whitby.

Poxon says “click traders” — buying and selling with a click of the mouse — can’t keep up with those, like himself, who use algorithms to ride the volatility. He said he and two colleagues made a total of about $5,000 to $6,000 (US) a day last week using an algorithm he designed.

There’s no clearer sign of the profitability of volatility than HBP S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Bull Plus, an exchange-traded fund (ETF). It was the most profitable mutual fund on the Toronto Stock Exchange during the last three months, its value rising an eye-popping 178 per cent.

The leveraged fund doesn’t buy and sell stock. It simply tracks the performance of the VIX Index — known by insiders as the Fear Index — which measures the volatility of U.S. stocks. The more volatile the market, the more money it makes.

“Volatility has been a very lucrative asset class to be invested in,” says an official with Horizons BetaPro, which manages the ETF. The official, who didn’t want to be named, stressed the fund isn’t for typical, long-term investors: “If the market isn’t volatile, you would lose gads of money on that ETF.”

Martin argues that big players are increasingly counting on market volatility. He points especially to hedge funds, which in 2008 controlled $2 trillion of assets in the U.S.

In theory, hedge funds reduce risk by placing bets in opposite directions. They should therefore make money no matter which way the market goes. But the way most hedge fund managers get paid magnifies the theory to the extreme, Martin argues.

Managers are paid according to the “2 and 20 formula” — 2 per cent of the assets they manage plus 20 per cent of the increase they generate. Big paycheques are made when markets shoot up or down.

“The more back and forth the better,” Martin says.

As the market swings, the incentive is to “roll the dice” and make a killing. If the bet turns out wrong, the manger has lost other people’s money — including, perhaps, a pension fund’s — yet still walks away with the 2 per cent fee. If the trade works, the millions or billions of dollars the fund earns is at the expense of other investors or companies because the market is a zero sum game, Martin says.

Either way, Martin argues that hedge fund managers are getting filthy rich without adding value or jobs to the economy. He calls it “the very biggest problem with the economy now.”

Sometimes the action raises allegations of crime. Canadian insurer Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. is suing a group of hedge funds, accusing them of spreading false information to drive down its stock and then profit through short-selling. (In short selling, a trader borrows shares to sell, hoping to buy them back later at a lower price. If that happens, the trader settles the loan and pockets the difference.)

Short sellers make money when stocks go down, which explains their reputation as vultures. Kirzner argues they help create an efficient market by moving stocks where they belong, pointing to the recent decline in share price of Research in Motion — maker of the BlackBerry — as an example.

It’s a game many are playing now, but one with a history of dire warnings. The legendary short-seller Jesse Livermore made millions betting short when stock markets crashed in 1929. But he lost as many fortunes as he made. In 1940, after throwing back two drinks, he walked into the cloakroom of a swanky Manhattan hotel and blew out his brains.

Fawad Khan isn’t playing for high stakes. He’s happy making what he describes as a decent living.

He was introduced to the stock market while working as a contractor in Pakistan. He built a home for a businessman who was so grateful he gave Khan a quick course on trading.

In Canada, he realized that contracting work involved the same kind of “palm greasing” it did in Pakistan. So he gave it up, studied trading and for the past nine years has been focusing on buying and selling currencies.

“It’s beautiful work,” he says. “I can do it any time I want. No business will give you that freedom.”

He says most days a handful of people will join him in his basement and copy his trades. He doesn’t charge them, unless they get hooked and want to take a course he gives now and then. He urges them to trade with a “stop loss” of $50 or $100 — if you lose that much, stop trading.

“The people who know this business, they make money. The people who are greedy, the people who have fear, they lose money.”

So what should a cautious trader do these days?

“Keep selling the euro short,” he says. “Short selling is good advice.”

Unless you’re Jesse Livermore, of course.

Big winners

Canada’s top performing mutual funds and ETFs over the last three months:

HBP S&P 500 VIX Short-term Futures Bull Plus: up 178.7%

HBP S&P 500 VIX Short Term Future: up 87.0%

HBP COMEX® Gold Bullion Bull Plus ETF: up 39.6%

Friedberg Global Macro Hedge (US$): up 29.8%

HBP S&P/TSX Energy Bear Plus ETF: up 28.0%

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Three former aides of a Japanese ruling party powerbroker were convicted Monday in a political funding scandal, dealing a further blow to his status in the struggling party ahead of his own trial.

Ichiro Ozawa engineered the Democratic Party of Japan’s rise to power in 2009, but was charged this year with political funding violations for allegedly overseeing false accounting by his aides.

The Tokyo District Court gave the former aides suspended prison terms ranging from one to three years for accepting $1.3 million (100 million yen) in illegal donations from a construction company and for failing to register a $5.2 million (400 million yen) loan from Ozawa to his funding body in a 2004 Tokyo land deal.

All three aides have denied any wrongdoing, as has Ozawa, who says he is confident of proving his innocence at his own trial, which starts Oct. 6.

Opposition leaders were quick to attack Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s 3-week-old government after the ruling.

Opposition Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker Nobuteru Ishihara said the aides’ convictions were serious and “their boss, Ichiro Ozawa, bears even more serious political responsibility business

In a boost to the region’s moribund auto industry, General Motors will inject $380 million into its Wentzville assembly plant, adding 1,850 jobs and a new pickup line as part of a proposed new labor contract, the United Auto Workers announced Tuesday.

The announcement is part of GM’s commitment to invest a total of $2.5 billion in facilities nationwide and create or retain 6,400 jobs over the life of the four-year contract, according to the UAW.

The union and GM reached an agreement Friday, but did not reveal details of expansion plans until Tuesday. The 48,500 union members working for GM nationwide must still ratify the contract next week.

UAW Local 2250 Chairman Mike Bullock said the contract called initially for the Wentzville plant to add a second production shift of between 400 and 700 people in the first quarter of 2012. Local 2250 represents hourly workers at the Wentzville plant, which produces Chevrolet Express and GMC Savana full-size vans. About 1,300 people in one production shift currently work at the Wentzville facility.

“This will be a real shot in the arm for Wentzville and the St. Louis area,” Bullock said in a phone interview. “This really is a tribute to the men and women who work at the Wentzville assembly center and produce the best quality product at the best cost.”

The local automotive industry has been devastated in recent years. Closures included the Ford plant in Hazelwood five years ago and Chrysler’s two Fenton plants in 2008 and 2009. Multiple local automobile suppliers that feed those plants with parts also closed. In 2009, GM eliminated a shift at the Wentzville plant, affecting more than 800 workers.

Some were laid off, and some took voluntary transfers to GM facilities elsewhere.

Some of those transferred and laid-off employees could be eligible for rehiring, according to UAW officials. Sixteen former Wentzville GM employees were transferred to GM’s Fairfax assembly plant in Kansas City, Kan., and 27 laid-off employees remain on Local 2250’s recall list.

GM also will be offering openings to unemployed GM union workers nationally who have recall rights. The number of such workers was unavailable.

Additionally, there are 350 people on a local referral list who could be tapped for the new jobs, Bullock said.

The investment by GM would pay for a 500,000-square-foot addition to the Wentzville’s current 3.7 million-square-foot facility, improvements to its paint department and other upgrades. The new contract also details plans for a midsize pickup to be produced in Wentzville. More than 1,000 workers would start working on that new line in 2013 for a 2014 model pickup, Bullock said.

“We’ve been waiting patiently a long time to hear this news,” said Tom Brune, UAW communications coordinator for Local 2250.

As Joe Gurrieri, 31, of O’Fallon, Mo., used a mechanical arm to swing dash panels into place on a steady stream of Chevy Express vans Tuesday, he said he was hopeful current workers would have more job security. Gurrieri, a 12-year employee, said he had returned to work in November after being laid off. “It’s good to be back, and it’s good to know we’ll be here for a while,” he said.

Some analysts have speculated that GM will shift production of its Chevrolet Colorado or GMC Canyon pickups, which currently are made in Shreveport, La., to Wentzville. The Shreveport assembly facility, which employs more than 900 people, is not owned by GM and had previously been slated to close as part of GM’s emergence from bankruptcy in 2009. A GM spokesman declined to comment on the pending contract or expansion details.

Last week, plant manager John Dansby told the Post-Dispatch that he believed Wentzville had been selected for expansion because of the plant’s emphasis on producing high quality vehicles at low costs.

“We’ve been working really hard at the plant to try to position ourselves to be very competitive,” Dansby said.

Last year, the plant forecast production of 80,000 vehicles and ended the year producing nearly 100,000.

“Our volumes are increasing, and the buying public has done a great job supporting our product,” he said.

TAX BREAKS

To help finance the expansion, Wentzville’s board of aldermen approved last week partial tax abatement for GM if it expands. As part of the deal, GM would make “payments in lieu of taxes” to local school districts, and have 75 percent of its property taxes for the new development abated for 10 years.

Wentzville Mayor Paul Lambi said he was hopeful the new jobs would bring back what was lost when the GM plant downsized in 2009. “There was an unbelievable ripple effect,” Lambi said, describing the closure of nearby restaurants and retailers two years ago. “Every business that relies on retail sales was affected. Bringing back a second shift is extremely good news.”

A couple of miles from the plant, Dan Strantz, owner of Mama’s Grill, also welcomed the news. The diner’s location near the intersection of Highway 40 and Interstate 70 opened about a month and half ago, he said, but his family has been in the restaurant business since 1972. “It’ll be good that there will actually be people with money to go out and spend,” he said.

If the expansion proceeds, GM is likely to pursue state incentives. The automaker has been in talks with Gov. Jay Nixon’s office and Department of Economic Development officials for a year, according to the governor’s spokesman, Sam Murphey. The automaker has not yet applied for any state incentives.

“We are strongly encouraged by the recent steps GM has taken, and we look forward to continuing to work closely with GM throughout this process,” Murphey said in a statement Tuesday.

The UAW outlined investments proposed by GM at several other plants nationwide, including plans to invest $925 million at three Michigan factories that will generate 900 jobs during the life of the contract. GM also plans to invest in plants in Spring Hill, Tenn., which had been idled, and Fort Wayne, Ind., that will generate or preserve a combined 3,700 jobs.

Gerrion Grim, 53, of O’Fallon, Mo., has worked at the Wentzville plant for about 18 months. He said he was laid off for a while and returned to work in April. Now, he said, he would like to see job security. “I’m definitely hoping for some longevity,” he said. “I just hope it all goes well.”

Shane Anthony of the Post-Dispatch contributed to this report.

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ST. CHARLES

WASHINGTON

Katia has weakened to a tropical storm as it moves across the Atlantic but forecasters say they expect it to strengthen again over the next two days.

Katia (KAH’-tee-yah) was about 930 miles (1497 kilometers) east of the Leeward Islands and moving west near 18 mph (30 kph) with maximum sustained winds late Thursday afternoon near 70 mph (113 kph), a 5 mph drop. It could become a major hurricane this weekend.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said it’s too early to tell if Katia will hit the U no faxing pay day loans.S. It is expected to pass north of the Caribbean.

Meanwhile two other storm systems were developing over open water, in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Atlantic well north of Bermuda. But forecasters said it was too soon to tell if either might hit land.

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The past month wasn’t exactly a confidence-booster for would-be home buyers and sellers.

They’ve witnessed a turbulent stock market, a downgrade of U.S. credit, a spreading European debt crisis and a U.S. economy that seems to be running in place.

And now many say they’re even more hesitant _ a retreat that could further delay a rebound in housing. It could hold back the overall economy, too.

“I have people who are just waiting and waiting, who just haven’t pulled the trigger even though they have the down payment,” said John Stearns, senior mortgage banker at American Fidelity Mortgage outside Milwaukee. “There’s a lot of kicking tires. A lot of people saying they just won’t do it.”

Their unease explains why applications for home mortgages sank last week to a nearly 15-year low. What’s more, sales of new homes fell more than expected in July _ and analysts think the financial turmoil may be accelerating that slide this month.

“Buyers just don’t want to commit to anything right now,” said Joel Naroff of Pennsylvania-based Naroff Economic Advisors.

Interviews with more than three dozen agents, brokers and would-be buyers and sellers indicate that the heightened uncertainty in the financial markets and the economy has made people even more cautious than before.

Consider:

_ Eric Younan, a marketing professional at an accounting firm who was about to buy a home in July in Farmington Hills, Mich. Then along came August. “What really scared me is that I’m a single guy, and I don’t want to have a mortgage by myself,” Younan says. “The economy is taking a pounding, and my friends who are getting laid off are leaving the state. Prices are still falling. So I’d rather have money in the bank than money in a house.”

_ Fernando Maza, a security system programmer in Broward County, Fla., who was about to buy a second home, right before the stream of unnerving developments on the economy and the stock market. Now, he’s less sure. “House prices could go down,” he says. “There’s so much inventory and not a lot of qualified buyers.”

_ Kurt Winiecki, a financial planner in Chicago who has been counseling a young couple on whether to buy or continue to rent. August made Winiecki’s decision easier: He’s telling them to rent. “What if they lose 20 percent of their equity and they can’t sell the house? It’s just too big a risk.”

Even before the recent financial upheavals, the home market was being depressed by the economy’s many problems: High unemployment. Stagnant pay. Rising health care expenses. High debt loads pay day loans. A wave of foreclosures. Shrunken home equity.

And real estate agents were saying that more buyers were walking away at the last minute. In June, the latest month for which figures are available, about 16 percent of closings were canceled. That was the highest figure since record keeping started more than a year ago.

This year is on pace to be the worst for home sales in 14 years. Nationally, prices are at 2002 levels, and even lower in areas like Phoenix, Las Vegas and Tampa, Fla.

But the past few weeks’ turmoil may be making everything worse. Homebuilder stocks, for instance, have been battered _ even more than the stock market as a whole. As a group, they’ve shed nearly 23 percent, according to a Standard & Poor’s analysis, compared with about 12 percent for the Dow Jones industrial average.

In normal times, today’s record-low mortgage rates would energize buying. Yet while more people are refinancing, applications for new mortgages are stuck at 10-year lows, according to Inside Mortgage Finance.

Part of the problem is that many people can’t buy even if they want to. More than 23 percent of homeowners owe more on their homes than they’re worth. An additional 25 percent have less than 20 percent equity in their homes, according to Capital Economics.

That means that nearly half of homeowners couldn’t qualify for a new mortgage because they couldn’t produce a big enough down payment.

Add to that a chaotic stock market and a weak economy, and the belief is taking hold among many that now isn’t the time to invest in the biggest purchase in most people’s lives.

“There’s a reassessment of risk across the planet,” says Jonathan Miller of New York-based real estate consultancy Miller Samuel. “Volatility breeds uncertainty, and this is intimidating for consumers.”

Consider the lack of interest in Eric Johannson’s home. A pilot for cargo hauler Atlas Air, Johannson put his lakefront Houston home on the market in July 2010. He planned to upgrade to a home in Orlando, where his wife took a new job.

Yet despite the house’s excellent condition, it has drawn not a single offer, even after the price was slashed to $249,000 _ $100,000 less than what Johannson and his wife paid in 2008.

“If this economic situation drags out much longer, my wife just may have to quit her job and career” and move back to Houston, Johansson says.

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President Barack Obama played golf and enjoyed some beach time with his family Sunday on Martha’s Vineyard, though not before getting briefed on developments in Libya.

Under sunny skies, Obama, wife Michelle, and daughters Malia and Sasha spent the morning on a private beach in Edgartown. The outing came on the third full day of Obama’s 10-day summer vacation and was his first excursion with his full family in tow. The president then parted ways with his family to play a round of golf at the Vineyard Golf Club.

First, though, Obama was briefed by national security aides on developments in Libya, where rebels advanced on Tripoli, threatening Moammar Gadhafi’s hold on power. White House aides have been at pains to show Obama is carrying out his duties as president even while on vacation amid international unrest, a shaky economy and high joblessness.

Obama also appeared on CBS News in an interview taped during his bus tour of the Midwest last week instant payday loans. He said he understood his low standing in the polls of late given public dissatisfaction with Washington and the poor economy. And he said he expected to be judged on the economy in next year’s presidential election.

“You’ve got an unemployment rate that is still too high, an economy that’s not growing fast enough,” he said. “And for me to argue, look, we’ve actually made the right decisions, things would have been much worse has we not made those decisions _ that’s not that satisfying if you don’t have a job right now. And I understand that and I expect to be judged a year from now on whether or not things have continued to get better.”

The president is scheduled to return to Washington next Saturday.

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Acknowledging the severity of the global economic storm, the Bank of Canada signalled no likely increases in interest rates any time soon while Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Ottawa might need to step in with another round of stimulus spending if conditions get worse.

Mark Carney, governor of the central bank, told a Commons committee Canada’s economy may show little growth or negative growth when the statistics are finalized for the April-through-June period because of the economic troubles in the United States and Europe. But he said growth will pick up a bit in the second half of 2011.

As expected, given the gloomy state of financial markets and world business conditions, Carney made it clear that the Bank of Canada would be hesitant to increase its trend-setting interest rate above the current 1 per cent in the near future. Lower rates spur business and consumer borrowing and add momentum to the economy.

“Since the crisis erupted, the Bank has demonstrated its flexibility and nimbleness in the conduct of monetary policy,” he told a special session of the Commons finance committee studying the economic crisis. “As the Canadian recovery has progressed, we have emphasized that we would be prudent with respect to the possible withdrawal of any degree of monetary stimulus,” he said.

Under questioning from opposition MPs, Flaherty said for the first time that the Conservative government would move in with another round of stimulus spending if the world economy suffers a double-dip recession.

“We would obviously do what is needed” if there was a “dramatic deterioration” in the economies of the United States and Europe, he told the committee.

But for now, Flaherty said, the government is not changing its budget plan despite the turmoil on financial markets and debt crises in the United States and Europe. The plan calls for spending cuts of $4 billion a year to eliminate the annual federal budget deficit — now $32-billion annually — in a few years.

Pressed by opposition MPs about how Ottawa would react to a renewed global slowdown, Flaherty said he would change course and develop a pro-growth spending plan as the Conservatives did during the recent recession.

There is no need yet to move away from the government’s deficit-reduction strategy, however, he told MPs. Canada’s economy is still growing, if modestly, Flaherty said.

NDP finance critic Peggy Nash said later that she was disappointed that Flaherty didn’t show more flexibility. Her party would like to see the government embark on a round of infrastructure spending to spur economic growth, improve job-creation and prepare Canada for the future. Liberal MP Scott Brison said Flaherty failed to offer Canadians the assurances needed at a time of extreme economic uncertainty.

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