St. Louis slips into familiar role as job-market laggard
Sometime in the past year, St. Louis slipped into an uncomfortable, but familiar pattern. When the rest of the country is creating jobs, we lag behind.
So it has been for decades. We seem to miss out on the hot sectors and we were saddled, until recently, with a shrinking manufacturing base. We don’t seem to have the workforce that makes employers want to expand here.
There used to be a mythology that the St. Louis economy did OK during recessions, even if it lagged during expansions. That’s no longer true, if it ever was.
During the Great Recession and for a while afterward, the metro area’s employment reports tracked national trends closely. We suffered the same devastating job losses, percentage wise, as the rest of the country in 2008 and 2009, and we experienced the same halting recovery in 2010.
Then, early last year, the lines diverged. The nation continued to add jobs, slowly but steadily, and St. Louis didn’t. For all of 2011, the metro area lost 3,900 jobs, a shrinkage of 0.3 percent.
The U.S. economy added 1.8 million jobs last year, for growth of 1.4 percent. The St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, commenting on the trend in a recent report, said the metro area’s job growth has been “systematically below the nation’s” since the first quarter of 2011.
For economists who watch the local job market, the report comes as no surprise.
“Even though the U.S. has begun to recover, we’re still lagging,” Rapach said.
St. Louis knows this territory well us fast cash.
“It’s just our usual thing of being behind,” says Howard Wall, chairman of the economics department at Lindenwood University. “The industries that are doing well, we don’t have.”
Of late, that’s the oil and gas industry. Until someone discovers shale gas under the Gateway Arch, we won’t keep pace with states like Texas, North Dakota and Pennsylvania.
We shouldn’t, however, just throw up our hands and complain that geology is destiny.
Some of the big industries we do have aren’t doing especially well. The health and education sector shrank slightly in St. Louis last year even as it grew 2 percent nationally.
Manufacturing, on the other hand, grew at about the national average. From the 1970s to the 1990s, the loss of factory jobs was a major reason why St. Louis lagged the nation. If that’s no longer an issue, why are we slipping into the old pattern?
“Our long-term problem,” Wall continues, “is human capital. We have not enough workers who are highly educated and too many of the poorly educated.”
Political leaders, however, don’t get it. Instead of figuring out how to improve Missouri’s education system, elected officials debate tax-credit programs that shift money to favored industries.
They’re fighting over pieces of the pie rather than making the pie bigger.
By just keeping pace with the nation, St. Louis could have had 22,000 more jobs than it actually did at the end of 2011. If Rapach’s forecast is correct, that jobs gap will grow by an additional 9,000 in 2012.
Those aren’t huge numbers, but they make a big difference over time. If the worst recession in 70 years wasn’t enough, what will it take to force a major rethinking of the region’s economic policies?