China’s Growth May Exceed 10% in Early 2010, Ba Says
China’s economic growth may exceed 10 percent in the first quarter of next year on a “moderately loose” monetary policy, a government research agency forecast.
The policy will stay in place in the short term to ensure a “stable recovery,” Ba Shusong, deputy director of the Development Research Center, an affiliate of the nation’s State Council, said in an interview with Shanghai Securities News.
China will be the first to recover from the global recession and has already passed its worst, Ba said, citing last quarter’s faster growth. The government will meet its target for an 8 percent expansion this year, Ba said, according to a transcript of the interview posted on the center’s Web site.
The world’s third-biggest economy grew 7.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, rebounding from a 6.1 percent expansion in the first, which was the weakest in almost a decade. The recovery is being fueled by 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) in stimulus spending, record growth in credit and improving demand for exports.
China’s economy may expand 8.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the China Securities Journal reported Aug. 21, citing State Information Center forecasts. Industrial output may climb 11.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, Zhu Hongren, spokesman for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said today.
“The next policy focus should shift economic growth from government-motivated demand” to the private sector, Ba said. Consumer and producer prices may resume rising in the fourth quarter, he said.