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This looks like a banner year for grape producers in New York, according to the latest federal forecast.

The state’s producers, who are concentrated in Western New York and in the Finger Lakes, are expected to harvest 170,000 tons of grapes, based on the report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service. That’s up 28 percent from 133,000 tons a year ago.

The increase was attributed to unusually good growing conditions, with warm days, plenty of sunshine, and a sufficient amount of precipitation.

The national outlook for the grape industry is not as strong, with U.S. grape production expected to decline 3 percent this year.

New York is the nation’s third-largest producer of grapes, trailing only California and Washington state.

The forecasts are not as strong for other large fruit crops. The National Agricultural Statistics Service says that the 2010 apple crop will be 13 percent smaller in New York and 4 percent smaller nationwide. And the pear crop is expected to shrink by 20 percent in New York and 11 percent nationwide.

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The number of Americans filing for initial unemployment insurance jumped last week to the highest level in 3 months, the government said Thursday.

There were 479,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ended July 31, up 19,000 from a upwardly revised 460,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said. The weekly figure is the highest since the week ended April 10, when 480,000 initial claims were filed.

The number of claims was higher than the 455,000 claims expected in a consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

The 4-week moving average of initial claims, which is calculated to smooth out volatility, was 458,500, up 5,250 from the previous week’s upwardly revised average of 453,250.

"The job market is pretty muted," said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research. "It’s not getting much worse, but it’s not getting any better either."

Roberts said the monthly employment report will provide a clearer picture of trends in the labor market, but it’s clear that a long road still lies ahead of a jobs recovery.

"The government has been driving the improvements we’ve seen in unemployment so far, so as soon as it stops spending, we’ll be back to where we were before," Roberts said.

As census jobs and the stimulus continue to fade, Roberts said jobless claims will increase.

Continuing claims: The government said 4,537,000 people filed continuing claims in the week ended July 24, the most recent data available. That’s down 34,000 from the preceding week’s upwardly revised 4,571,000 claims.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were looking for 4,530,000 ongoing claims.

The 4-week moving average for ongoing claims climbed by 25,750 to 4,575,500 from the preceding week’s upwardly revised 4,549,750.

State by state: Jobless claims in 19 states declined by more than 1,000 in the week ended July 24, the most recent state data available. Claims in California dropped the most, by 19,107, which the state attributed to fewer layoffs in the service industries.  

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Craft Brewers Alliance, the Portland, Ore.-based operator of the Redhook brewery in Woodinville, has acquired Kona Brewing Co. of Hawaii for an undisclosed price.

The Big Island-based brewery will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Craft Brewers Alliance (NASDAQ: HOOK).

Three years ago, Redhook and Widmer Bros. Brewing Co. of Oregon merged in a $50 million deal and corporate headquarters of the new Craft Brewers Alliance company was located in Portland.

Click here to see a release on the Craft Brewers Alliance-Kona deal.

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New BP CEO Bob Dudley is an alumnus of the Thunderbird School of Global Management. He serves on the Glendale graduate business school’s board of fellows and on BP's board of directors.

Dudley is taking over for embattled CEO Tony Hayward, who is stepping down. Hayward and BP have been faulted for their response to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill and for their sometimes aristocratic statements and attitudes toward the spill payday loan.

Dudley received a Master of International Management degree from Thunderbird in 1979 and is a veteran oil industry executive.

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Nova Engineering, a unit of L-3 Communications, landed a contract worth up to $53.8 million to provide and maintain a remote sensor system for the Department of Defense.

According to a DOD news release, Cincinnati-based Nova will provide the department with equipment, upgrades and repairs, and program management for its Tactical Remote Sensor System payday loans. The technology allows for all-weather remote monitoring of specific areas.

The work will be performed at Nova’s Cincinnati operations and is expected to be completed by July 2015.

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Bermuda Run Country Club is out from under control of a court-appointed receiver after businessman Don Angell reached an agreement with the club’s lender.

Members of the club received a letter dated July 1 notifying them of the agreement with Rhode Island-based Textron Financial, which filed suit earlier this year claiming that Angell put the club up as collateral for a more than $8 million loan that the club’s operating company, WFBRCC LLC, took out in 2004.

The letter did not outline details of the agreement.

“Unfortunately, the speed and depth of the worst recession in eighty years caught us completely off guard,” Angell’s letter said. “As a result, we had to enter into some difficult dealings with Textron Financial, our lender, including a possible foreclosure of the club low fee payday loans.”

Georgia-based Affiniti Golf Partners came in to manage the club under the court-appointed receiver and will continue to run the club. Affiniti, along with club staff, “have worked hard to right the ship and put it back on a healthy course once again,” Angell wrote.

Several of Angell’s other companies have faced financial difficulties including tax liens over the past few months. But Angell wrote that “Bermuda Run CC is one of our proudest accomplishments. We love the club, all the people involved, and cherish the memories we have created together over all these years. Its recent troubles were very painful for us.”

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Los Alamos National Laboratory and its employees donated a combined $113,000 to the United Way of Santa Fe’s 2009-2010 giving campaign, making LANL the top donor for the ninth consecutive year.

LANL and its management company, Los Alamos National Security LLC (LANS), will receive the 2010 Top Workplace Contributor Award, along with the lab’s Community Programs Office. In addition, Debbi Wersonick – who coordinates community-giving programs for LANL – will receive a Community Ambassador plaque cashadvance.

LANL employees raised more than $2 million in its most recent giving campaign for the United Way of Santa Fe County and United Way of Northern New Mexico. The total included a dollar-for-dollar match from LANS.

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A private equity group has paid $5.4 million to Union Credit Bank for nearly an acre of land in the heart of Miami’s financial district, the site of a planned 42-story condominium tower.

The June 11 sale pegged the purchase price of the 36,000-square-foot property at $150 a square foot.

Union Credit Bank repossessed the site, at 1100 S. Miami Ave., from development company Brickell Village Partners and principal J. Kevin Reilly. Reilly planned to build Pointe at Brickell Village on the property.

At the time of the foreclosure, the bank was owed $7.6 million in principal, plus $1.2 million in interest, fees, and court costs, according to the final judgment of foreclosure signed by Miami-Dade County Circuit Court Judge Gerald D. Hubbart on Jan. 22.

Peter Zalewski, managing principal of Bal Harbour-based real estate consultancy Condo Vultures, said the deal is a sign that investors are looking beyond condo management and resales as revenue models – another sign of the local market’s recovery.

"Nearly 10 high-rise condo development sites in greater downtown Miami have been sold in the last two years, and several more are for sale," he said. "Private equity groups have been buying up deeply discounted condos in greater downtown Miami with great velocity for the last 18 months. As the oversupply of new condos is whittled down, buyers are increasingly broadening their criteria. Land is starting to become acceptable at the right price once again."

Adam Greenberg, managing director of Miami-based BayBridge Real Estate Group, which handles real estate sales and financing, agrees that the deal is another sign that the market is turning.

“Investors are buying up strategic sites so they can build on the next go around,” he said.

But, Jack McCabe, of McCabe Research & Consulting in Deerfield Beach, said there are variables on the horizon, including Amendment 4, which could create obstacles to future investment.

On the November ballot, Amendment 4 would require the public to vote on large development projects that would need changes to government master plans. He also noted that there is still significant unsold inventory, financing challenges and another wave of foreclosures that will likely tamp down demand for new construction for five to seven more years.

“Miami will come back strong. It’s only a matter of time,” he said. “But, I think some developers are overly optimistic about how fast the turnaround will be.”

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Forget the worries about China’s economy cooling off. Overheating might be the greater concern.

China reported Thursday that its exports grew nearly 50%. Property prices in the biggest cities shot up 12% compared to a year earlier, the second biggest jump on record. Industrial production is up nearly 19% so far this year.

While a robust Chinese economy could benefit the U.S., it’s also a concern since further strength may lead China to take more steps to rein in growth.

There are other signs that the Chinese economy is once again white hot, despite recent worries about a slowdown in demand for its products in Europe and the United States.

The Chinese government reported Friday that consumer prices jumped 3.1% in May compared to a year ago, and that spending on consumer soared 19% on that basis.

But one of the most significant is a series of strikes and labor agreements in recent days granting large pay increases to Chinese workers.

After labor stoppages shut down some of the operations of Honda Motor (HMC) in China, workers got wage increases of between 24% and 32%. Foxconn Technology, which makes products for Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500), Dell (DELL, Fortune 500), Hewlett Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) and Sony (SNE) on a contract basis, has doubled the wages of its estimated 800,000 workers in China.

Wage increases are spreading beyond these plants. Some provincial governments are raising minimum wages by as much as 16% in order to attract skilled workers.

Nicholas Lardy, economist and China specialist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said the increases are nothing new. Wages have been rising at least 15% a year for the last decade in China, although off a very low base.

But Lardy predicted more wage increases ahead. For Chinese exporters, especially manufacturers of electronics, labor costs are only a small part of their costs bad credit payday loans. So they can afford to raise wages without losing production to even lower-wage countries like Vietnam.

If wages continue to go up, that could eventually cause higher prices for some Chinese exports, as well as create inflation pressures in China. That could lead to additional wage hikes, creating an inflationary cycle that could have an impact on the price of goods across the globe.

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testified before a Senate committee Thursday that the U.S. believes rising Chinese wages will be a plus for U.S. jobs, however.

"China has to be a key part of any strategy to increase U.S. exports and jobs," Geithner said. "Over time Chinese households will be able to earn more and buy more, including American goods and services."

But Lardy said U.S. exports to China still make up a relatively small percentage of consumer purchases there. Most U.S. multinational corporations trying to reach Chinese consumers are producing the goods in China. Chinese imports are still dominated mostly by capital goods or industrial commodities.

In addition to spending more, better-paid Chinese workers are likely to invest more as well, which could feed into asset bubbles there.

Rates on savings accounts in China are well below 1%. That has driven many people to invest in real estate to try to get better returns on those savings.

John Makin, a China expert and principal at Caxton Associates, a hedge fund, said the overall Chinese economy isn’t in danger of overheating even with the large wage hikes, but that the housing market is at risk.

"I think the overheating pressure has been concentrated in the real estate sector. They’re making people very nervous," he said. 

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Many would-be stock investors are awaiting a perfect storm.

That is a miraculous time when prospects for gains are outstanding, prices are reasonable and risk is minimal.

They shouldn’t hold their breath. In 2008, stock prices were low but prospects dim as our financial system teetered. Gains in 2009 were a rebound from that low point but came as a surprise. In 2010, Europe’s financial weakness has shocked the world.

What’s a novice investor to do? Stop waiting for a sign, say the experts. To be serious about investing, make it a regular part of your life as soon as possible because it is a long-term commitment.

"There’s really never a bad time to start investing," declared Charles Carlson, editor of the DRIP Investor newsletter (www.dripinvestor.com), which focuses on stock dividend reinvestment plans. "The biggest hurdle for people of any age is their concern that they’re getting into the market at the absolute worst time."

History shows that over time, stocks will trend upward, he said, so the greatest success comes from exploiting the power of time — and that is done by getting into the game as soon as possible.

"In the short term, it may be a bad time, but it will change," Carlson said.

You can start at any age and won’t have missed the boat. A 50-year-old probably has another 25 to 30 years ahead, which a long time for money to grow, he said. At 55, you may want your stock portion to be more defensive (blue chip) than aggressive, he acknowledged, but that doesn’t mean a diversified portfolio can’t have a smattering of smaller growth stocks.

"This is a good time for a young person to get into the market," said Mark Salzinger, editor and publisher of the No-Load Fund Investor (www.noloadfundinvestor.com). "Get into a disciplined ‘pay-yourself-first’ plan in which you regularly put a dollar figure in a good growth stock mutual fund."

As your income grows, you can invest more, and during the down market periods you’ll be able to buy more stock, he reasoned.

"There are lots of side issues, such as European debt, but you have a good situation now in regard to equity prices in the U.S. with very low interest rates," Salzinger said. "Company earnings are improving, and the economy is getting better, but there’s still a lot of money on the sidelines."

The bullish argument is a stronger one now than the bearish one, he believes.

"A 40- or 50-year-old who has never invested before is likely to have a very low risk tolerance because they otherwise would have been the market years earlier," said Salzinger.

Vanguard Star Fund is great for such beginners because it provides a diversified portfolio in a single shot, said Salzinger. That "fund of funds" invests in 11 Vanguard funds of various styles and managers to build a diversified portfolio that is 62 percent stocks, 25 percent intermediate- and long-term bonds and 12 percent short-term bonds.

The "no-load" (no sales charge) Vanguard Star is up 24 percent over the past 12 months and has a 10-year annualized return of 5 percent. It requires an initial minimum investment of $1,000 and has a low annual expense ratio of 0.37 percent.

A balanced fund of stocks and bonds is a typical starting point. Among stocks, first-time investors also can choose from many funds, with those based on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index or broader stock indexes some good examples.

Diversification, which leads to less volatility and steadier returns, involves building a portfolio of stocks and bonds with variety even within each asset class. Most funds permit investing with a relatively small amount. Investors with larger amounts typically add individual stocks or bonds.

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